IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v131y2022icp92-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? Global prices, local quantities

Author

Listed:
  • Augustin, Patrick
  • Sokolovski, Valeri
  • Subrahmanyam, Marti G.
  • Tomio, Davide

Abstract

Price fluctuations of sovereign default insurance are dominated by common risks. In contrast, fluctuations in their quantities are primarily explained by country-specific factors. Using net positions in sovereign default insurance contracts for 60 countries between 2008 and 2015, we show that a country’s debt and size explain 75% of cross-country differences in net insured interest. We develop an economic framework showing that high co-movement in prices and low co-movement in quantities can arise jointly only if insurance demand and supply shift in opposite directions in response to global shocks. Positions data support that this evidence is more salient for more intermediated assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? Global prices, local quantities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 92-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:131:y:2022:i:c:p:92-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.07.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393222000988
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.07.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, D., 2010. "Is there a case for banning short speculation in sovereign bond markets?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 14, pages 55-59, July.
    2. Valentin Haddad & Tyler Muir, 2021. "Do Intermediaries Matter for Aggregate Asset Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2719-2761, December.
    3. Augustin, Patrick, 2018. "The term structure of CDS spreads and sovereign credit risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 53-76.
    4. D’Errico, Marco & Battiston, Stefano & Peltonen, Tuomas & Scheicher, Martin, 2018. "How does risk flow in the credit default swap market?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 53-74.
    5. Antón, Miguel & Mayordomo, Sergio & Rodríguez‐Moreno, María, 2018. "Dealing with dealers: Sovereign CDS comovements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 96-112.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    7. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    8. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    9. Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman & Yishay Yafeh, 2002. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then versus Now," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 695-733.
    10. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    11. Emil N. Siriwardane, 2019. "Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2303-2347, October.
    12. Acharya, Viral V. & Gündüz, Yalin & Johnson, Timothy C., 2022. "Bank use of sovereign CDS in the Eurozone crisis: Hedging and risk incentives," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    13. Valentin Haddad & Tyler Muir, 2021. "Do Intermediaries Matter for Aggregate Asset Prices?," NBER Working Papers 28692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    15. Oehmke, Martin & Zawadowski, Adam, 2015. "Synthetic or real? The equilibrium effects of credit default swaps on bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    17. Nina Boyarchenko & Anna M. Costello & Or Shachar, 2018. "Credit Market Choice," Liberty Street Economics 20181017, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    19. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
    20. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    21. Wei Jiang & Jitao Ou & Zhongyan Zhu, 2021. "Mutual Fund Holdings of Credit Default Swaps: Liquidity, Yield, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 537-586, April.
    22. Songzi Du & Haoxiang Zhu, 2017. "Are CDS Auctions Biased and Inefficient?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2589-2628, December.
    23. Sven Klingler & David Lando, 2018. "Safe Haven CDS Premiums," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1856-1895.
    24. Dion Bongaerts & Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen, 2011. "Derivative Pricing with Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 203-240, February.
    25. Lijun Bo & Agostino Capponi, 2018. "Portfolio Choice with Market-Credit Risk Dependencies," Papers 1806.07175, arXiv.org.
    26. Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Evaporating Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
    27. Ang, Andrew & Gorovyy, Sergiy & van Inwegen, Gregory B., 2011. "Hedge fund leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 102-126, October.
    28. Wenxin Du & Salil Gadgil & Michael B. Gordy & Clara Vega, 2016. "Counterparty Risk and Counterparty Choice in the Credit Default Swap Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-087, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2009. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4259-4299, October.
    30. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    31. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    32. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    33. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2014. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 118-133.
    34. Petri Jylhä & Kalle Rinne & Matti Suominen, 2014. "Do Hedge Funds Supply or Demand Liquidity?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1259-1298.
    35. Hui Chen & Scott Joslin & Sophie X. Ni, 2019. "Demand for Crash Insurance, Intermediary Constraints, and Risk Premia in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 25573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Cetina, Jill & Paddrik, Mark & Rajan, Sriram, 2018. "Stressed to the core: Counterparty concentrations and systemic losses in CDS markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-52.
    37. Aragon, George O. & Strahan, Philip E., 2012. "Hedge funds as liquidity providers: Evidence from the Lehman bankruptcy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 570-587.
    38. Oehmke, Martin & Zawadowski, Adam, 2016. "The anatomy of the CDS market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118964, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    39. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    40. Hui Chen & Scott Joslin & Sophie Xiaoyan Ni, 2019. "Demand for Crash Insurance, Intermediary Constraints, and Risk Premia in Financial Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 228-265.
    41. Augustin, Patrick & Tédongap, Roméo, 2016. "Real Economic Shocks and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 541-587, April.
    42. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    43. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    44. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    45. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    46. Martin Oehmke & Adam Zawadowski, 2017. "The Anatomy of the CDS Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 80-119.
    47. Qiu, Jiaping & Yu, Fan, 2012. "Endogenous liquidity in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 611-631.
    48. Martin Oehmke & Adam Zawadowski, 2015. "Synthetic or Real? The Equilibrium Effects of Credit Default Swaps on Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(12), pages 3303-3337.
    49. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    50. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    51. Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2015. "The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(5), pages 963-985, October.
    52. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Helena Chuliá & Sabuhi Khalili & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Monitoring time-varying systemic risk in sovereign debt and currency markets with generative AI," IREA Working Papers 202402, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xinjie & Wu, Yangru & Yan, Hongjun & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2021. "Funding liquidity shocks in a quasi-experiment: Evidence from the CDS Big Bang," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 545-560.
    2. Aramonte, Sirio & Szerszeń, Paweł J., 2020. "Cross-market liquidity and dealer profitability: Evidence from the bond and CDS markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2016. "Why do investors buy sovereign default insurance?," CFS Working Paper Series 540, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    5. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Li, Ka-Fai & Fu, John, 2018. "Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 98-110.
    6. Czech, Robert, 2021. "Credit default swaps and corporate bond trading," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Sven Klingler & David Lando, 2018. "Safe Haven CDS Premiums," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1856-1895.
    8. J. Alsubaiei, Bader & Calice, Giovanni & Vivian, Andrew, 2021. "Sovereign CDS and mutual funds: Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    10. Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2018. "Sovereign credit spreads under good/bad governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-246.
    11. Gruenthaler, Thomas & Lorenz, Friedrich & Meyerhof, Paul, 2022. "Option-based intermediary leverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "In sickness and in debt: The COVID-19 impact on sovereign credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1251-1274.
    13. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2016. "The European sovereign debt crisis: What have we learned?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 363-373.
    14. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    15. Sandro Lunghi & Daniel Schmidt & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2021. "Fundamental Arbitrage under the Microscope: Evidence from Detailed Hedge Fund Transaction Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Aragon, George O. & Li, Lei & Qian, Jun ‘QJ’, 2019. "The use of credit default swaps by bond mutual funds: Liquidity provision and counterparty risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 168-185.
    17. Andrade, Sandro C. & Ekponon, Adelphe & Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2023. "Sovereign risk premia and global macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 172-197.
    18. Jason Allen & Milena Wittwer, 2023. "Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints," Staff Working Papers 23-51, Bank of Canada.
    19. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Plazzi, Alberto, 2020. "Does monetary policy impact international market co-movements?," SAFE Working Paper Series 276, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    20. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5591-5617, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; Credit risk; Debt; Demand and supply; Over-the-counter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:131:y:2022:i:c:p:92-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.