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Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission

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Listed:
  • Dena Bravata
  • Jonathan H. Cantor
  • Neeraj Sood
  • Christopher M. Whaley

Abstract

Schools across the United States and the world have been closed in an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. However, the effect of school closure on COVID-19 transmission remains unclear. We estimate the causal effect of changes in the number of weekly visits to schools on COVID-19 transmission using a triple difference approach. In particular, we measure the effect of changes in county-level visits to schools on changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households with school-age children relative to changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households without school-age children. We use a data set from the first 46 weeks of 2020 with 130 million household-week level observations that includes COVID-19 diagnoses merged to school visit tracking data from millions of mobile phones. We find that increases in county-level in-person visits to schools lead to an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses among households with children relative to households without school-age children. However, the effects are small in magnitude. A move from the 25th to the 75th percentile of county-level school visits translates to a 0.3 per 10,000 household increase in COVID-19 diagnoses. This change translates to a 3.2 percent relative increase. We find larger differences in low-income counties, in counties with higher COVID-19 prevalence, and at later stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Dena Bravata & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "Back to School: The Effect of School Visits During COVID-19 on COVID-19 Transmission," NBER Working Papers 28645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28645
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurmann, André & Lalé, Etienne, 2021. "School Closures and Effective In-Person Learning during COVID-19: When, Where, and for Whom," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-18, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    2. Rufrancos, Héctor & Moro, Mirko & Moore, Eva, 2021. "The impact of University reopenings on COVID-19 cases in Scotland," GLO Discussion Paper Series 868, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    4. Svaleryd, Helena & Vlachos, Jonas, 2022. "COVID-19 and School Closures," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1008, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Koppa, Vijetha & West, Jeremy, 2022. "School reopenings, COVID-19, and employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution on Mental Health Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 29593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sibel Uysal & İsmail Dönmez, 2024. "Examination of Late COVID-19 Pandemic Stress, Burnout, Hopelessness, and Depression Among University Students According to Demographic Characteristics," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, April.
    8. Kairon Shayne D. Garcia & Benjamin W. Cowan, 2022. "The Impact of U.S. School Closures on Labor Market Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 29641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Benjamin Hansen & Joseph J. Sabia & Jessamyn Schaller, 2022. "Schools, Job Flexibility, and Married Women's Labor Supply," NBER Working Papers 29660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lattanzio, Salvatore, 2024. "Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Thomas Dee & Elizabeth Huffaker & Cheryl Phillips & Eric Sagara, 2021. "The Revealed Preferences for School Reopening: Evidence from Public-School Disenrollment," NBER Working Papers 29156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Benjamin Hansen & Joseph J. Sabia & Jessamyn Schaller, 2022. "In-Person Schooling and Youth Suicide: Evidence from School Calendars and Pandemic School Closures," NBER Working Papers 30795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

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