Loans for Higher Education: Does the Dream Come True?

This paper analyzes the impact of student loans for higher education on enrollment, dropout decisions, and earnings. We investigate the massive State Guaranteed Loan (SGL) program implemented in Chile in 2006. Our empirical analysis is based on the estimation of a sequential schooling decision model with unobserved heterogeneity. We supplement this model with labor market outcomes. The model is estimated using rich longitudinal data generated from administrative records. Our findings show that the SGL program increased the probability of enrollment and reduced the probability of dropping out from tertiary education: SGL reduced the first year dropout rate by 6.8% for students enrolled in five-year colleges and by 64.3% for those enrolled in institutions offering two- or four-year degrees. Moreover, we document that the SGL program has been more effective in reducing the probability of dropping out for low-skilled individuals from low-income families. When analyzing labor market outcomes, we find that SGL beneficiaries have lower wages (up to 6.4% less) than those who did not "benefit'' from the program. We attribute this negative result to the design of the SGL program, which has incentivized higher education institutions to retain students at the expense of not securing the quality of education