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An estimated DSGE model of the Hungarian economy

Author

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  • Zoltán M. Jakab

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Balázs Világi

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) small-open-economy model for the Hungarian economy. The model features different types of frictions, real and nominal rigidities which are necessary to replicate the empirical persistence of Hungarian data. Bayesian methods are applied, and the structural break due to changing monetary regime over the studied period is explicitly taken into account in the estimation procedure. A real-time adaptive learning mechanism describes agents’ perception on underlying inflation. This creates an additional inertia in inflation. We describe the properties of the estimated model by impulse-response analysis, variance decomposition and the analysis of identified structural shocks. Our results are compared with that of estimated euro-area DSGE models, and estimated non-DSGE models of the Hungarian economy. As a robustness check, a model without real time adaptive learning is also estimated and it’s results are also compared to those of the original model.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoltán M. Jakab & Balázs Világi, 2008. "An estimated DSGE model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2008/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2008/9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kónya, István & Benczúr, Péter, 2013. "Kamatfelár, hitelválság és mérlegalkalmazkodás egy kis, nyitott gazdaságban [Interest premium, credit crisis and balance-sheet adjustment in a small open economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 940-964.
    3. Egle Jakucionyte & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2022. "The macroeconomics of carry trade gone wrong: Corporate and consumer losses in Emerging Europe," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 773-812, October.
    4. Kónya, István & Baksa, Dániel, 2017. "Növekedés és pénzügyi környezet [Growth and the financial environment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 349-376.
    5. Zuzana Mucka & Michal Horvath, 2015. "Fiscal Policy Matters A New DSGE Model for Slovakia," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    6. Igor Vetlov & Tibor Hlédik & Magnus Jonsson & Henrik Kucsera & Massimiliano Pisani, 2011. "Potential Output in DSGE Models," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 9, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Igor Vetlov & Ricardo Mourinho Felix & Laure Frey & Tibor Hledik & Zoltan Jakab & Niki Papadopoulou & Lukas Reiss & Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Implementation of Scenarios using DSGE Models," Working Papers 2010-10, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    8. Tamás Sebestyén, 2011. "Hálózati struktúra és egyensúly: a tudás-áramlás szerkezeti jellemzőinek kérdései," UPFBE Working Paper Series 2011/5, Faculty of Business and Economics, University Pécs.
    9. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Jakucionyte, Egle, 2017. "Debt Overhang, Exchange Rates and the Macroeconomics of Carry Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 11788, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Takyi, Paul Owusu & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2020. "Macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy in Ghana: Analysis of an estimated DSGE model with financial exclusion," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-260.
    11. Katalin Szilágyi & Dániel Baksa & Jaromir Benes & Ágnes Horváth & Csaba Köber & Gábor D. Soós, 2013. "The Hungarian Monetary Policy Model," MNB Working Papers 2013/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    12. Ms. Adina Popescu & Ms. Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 2011/259, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    14. László Békési & Csaba Köber & Henrik Kucsera & Tímea Várnai & Balázs Világi, 2016. "The macroeconomic forecasting model of the MNB," MNB Working Papers 2016/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    15. Kónya, István & Jakab M., Zoltán, 2012. "Munkapiaci súrlódások DSGE modellekben [Labour market frictions in DSGE models]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 933-962.
    16. Ana-Maria SÃNDICÃ, 2015. "The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability in Romania," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(1), pages 110-124, June.
    17. Serbanoiu, Georgian Valentin, 2012. "Transmission of fiscal policy shocks into Romania's economy," MPRA Paper 40947, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Peter Benczur & Istvan Konya, 2016. "Interest Premium, Sudden Stop, and Adjustment in a Small Open Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 271-295, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian models; DSGE models; small open economy; Bayesian econometrics.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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