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Kamatfelár, hitelválság és mérlegalkalmazkodás egy kis, nyitott gazdaságban
[Interest premium, credit crisis and balance-sheet adjustment in a small open economy]

Author

Listed:
  • Kónya, István
  • Benczúr, Péter

Abstract

E tanulmányban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy miként alkalmazkodik egy kis, nyitott gazdaság a külső finanszírozási feltételek hirtelen romlásához. A hitelválságot nemlineáris specifikációval modellezzük, amely kezelhető módon jeleníti meg a hitelezési korlátokat. Megközelítésünk előnye, hogy a sokk hatása erősen függ a gazdaság kezdeti eladósodottsági szintjétől. Az elemzéshez egy kétszektoros modellt használunk, kiegészítve a "pénz a hasznosságfüggvényben" feltevéssel. Ennek segítségével vizsgálni tudjuk az alkalmazkodási folyamatban megjelenő szektorális aszimmetriát, valamint a devizakitettség szerepét. A modellt a magyar gazdaság 2000-es évekbeli viselkedéséhez kalibráljuk, különös tekintettel a 2008-2011-es válság alatti folyamatokra. A modell segítségével három tényellenes szimulációt mutatunk be: a kisebb kezdeti eladósodottság, a rögzített árfolyam és a szabadon lebegő árfolyam esetét. Összességében modellünk jól ragadja meg a fő makroökonómiai és szektorális folyamatok alakulását a válság során, ezeket egy jelentős és elhúzódó mérlegalkalmazkodás részeiként értelmezve. A modell alkalmas továbbá annak a gazdaságpolitikai dilemmának a számszerűsítésére, amelyben a reálgazdaság alkalmazkodását a hazai valuta leértékelődése ugyan segítené, de a háztartási mérlegekre gyakorolt hatásán keresztül negatív hatással lenne a fogyasztási kiadásokra. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E21, E41, E5, F3.

Suggested Citation

  • Kónya, István & Benczúr, Péter, 2013. "Kamatfelár, hitelválság és mérlegalkalmazkodás egy kis, nyitott gazdaságban [Interest premium, credit crisis and balance-sheet adjustment in a small open economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 940-964.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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