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Potential Output Estimations for Hungary: A Survey of Different Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Szilárd Benk

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Zoltán M. Jakab

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Gábor Vadas

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This paper is a comprehensive analysis of Hungary’s potential output. Since the concept of potential output is not unique, we present various interpretations of potential GDP, along with a large set of techniques for estimating it. Various estimates are presented and robustness analyses are performed. Finally, an illustrative scenario is outlined for the forthcoming few years.

Suggested Citation

  • Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "Potential Output Estimations for Hungary: A Survey of Different Approaches," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/43, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2005/43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre St-Amant & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
    2. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Júlia Lendvai, 2005. "Hungarian Inflation Dynamics," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/46, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Steven Morling, 2002. "Output Adjustment in Developing Countries: a Structural Var Approach," Discussion Papers Series 307, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    5. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    6. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács & Balázs Párkányi & Zoltán Reppa & Gábor Vadas, 2006. "The Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM)," MNB Occasional Papers 2006/60, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    7. Gábor Pula, 2003. "Capital Stock Estimation in Hungary: A Brief Description of Methodolgy and Results," MNB Working Papers 2003/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Gábor Kátay & Zoltán Wolf, 2004. "Investment Behavior, User Cost and Monetary Policy Transmission - the Case of Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2004/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Báger, Gusztáv & Galbács, Péter & Pulay, Gyula, 2012. "Az állami költségvetés makrogazdasági kockázatainak elemzése [Analysing macroeconomic risks in the state budget]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 1014-1036.
    2. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2021. "Potential Output: A Market Conditionalities Interpretation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-38, December.
    3. Mellár, Tamás & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "A kibocsátási rés becslése többváltozós állapottérmodellekben. Szuperhiszterézis és további empirikus eredmények [Estimating output gap in multivariate state space models. Super-hysteresis and furt," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 557-591.
    4. Schepp, Zoltán & Abaligeti, Gallusz & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "Időben változó Taylor-szabály a hazai monetáris politika jellemzésére [A time-varying parameter Taylor rule for Hungarian monetary policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 24-43.
    5. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Julia Wörz, 2013. "How Important Is Total Factor Productivity for Growth in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-27.
    6. Zoltán M. Jakab & Balázs Világi, 2008. "An estimated DSGE model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2008/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential output; output gap; production function; business cycle; filtering.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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