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Presidential popularity: what matters most, macroeconomics or scandals?

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  • D. J. Smyth
  • S. W. Taylor

Abstract

What accounts for the widely divergent impact of political scandal on the Nixon and Clinton administrations? This article argues that the extent to which an administration suffers in the public's eye from a scandal depends on the economic conditions prevailing at the time. Using Gallup poll data, it estimates a quadratic social preference function for each administration and finds that the impact of Watergate on Nixon's decline in the polls has been over-emphasized and that the Lewinsky affair had no impact on Clinton's popularity. The role of the economy contributed more to political success or failure in both cases than did scandal.

Suggested Citation

  • D. J. Smyth & S. W. Taylor, 2003. "Presidential popularity: what matters most, macroeconomics or scandals?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 585-588.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:9:p:585-588
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000100189
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Smyth, David J. & Taylor, Susan Washburn, 1992. "Inflation-unemployment trade-offs of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents: Empirical evidence on the partisan theory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 47-57.
    2. Smyth, David J & Dua, Pami & Taylor, Susan Washburn, 1994. "Voters and Macroeconomics: Are They Forward Looking or Backward Looking?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 78(3-4), pages 283-293, March.
    3. David Smyth & Pami Dua & Susan Washburn Taylor, 1995. "Structural change in the relationship between presidential popularity and inflation and unemployment: the Nixon and Ford presidencies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(9), pages 305-307.
    4. Susan W. Taylor & David J. Smyth & Pami Dua, 1999. "Estimating the public's social preference function between inflation and unemployment using survey data: The survey research center versus Gallup," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 361-372.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerald T. Fox, 2009. "Partisan Divide on War and the Economy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 905-933, December.
    2. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Sören, 2014. "The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-54.
    3. Michael Berlemann & Sören Enkelmann & Torben Kuhlenkasper, 2015. "Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A Multidimensional Semiparametric Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 468-486, April.
    4. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    5. Maxime Menuet & Hugo Oriola & Patrick Villieu, 2024. "Do conservative central bankers weaken the chances of conservative politicians?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 62(4), pages 681-738, June.
    6. Chun‐ping Chang & Yung‐hsiang Ying & Meng‐chi Hsieh, 2009. "Impact Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Government Popularity: An Ecowas Investigation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 28-44, March.
    7. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Soeren & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2012. "Unraveling the complexity of US presidential approval: A multi-dimensional semi-parametric approach," HWWI Research Papers 118, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).

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