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Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances

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  • Sposi, Michael

Abstract

The age distribution influences capital flows through aggregate saving and labor supply. To quantify this, I build a dynamic model featuring overlapping generations and international trade among 28 countries since 1970. The equilibrium is replicated by a model with a representative household in each country that experiences an endogenous discount factor, which summarizes the co-evolution of demographics and relevant prices, affording computation of the exact transition. On average, a one-year increase a countrys mean age boosts its current account by 0.4 percent of GDP. Bilateral trade frictions dictate the cross-country response of capital flows to changes in a countrys demographics.

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  • Sposi, Michael, 2022. "Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:126:y:2022:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.11.005
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    2. Cooley, Thomas F. & Henriksen, Espen & Nusbaum, Charlie, 2024. "Demographic obstacles to European growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Joseph Steinberg, 2019. "On the Source of U.S. Trade Deficits: Global Saving Glut or Domestic Saving Drought?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 200-223, January.
    4. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    6. Miriam Koomen & Laurence Wicht, 2023. "Demographics and Current Account Imbalances: Accounting for the Full Age Distribution," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 719-758, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographics; Global imbalances; Dynamics; International trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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