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Capital Flows in an Aging World

Author

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  • Zsofia Barany

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Nicolas Coeurdacier

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Stéphane Guibaud

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We investigate the importance of worldwide demographic evolutions in shaping capital flows across countries and over time. Our lifecycle model incorporates cross-country differences in fertility and longevity as well as differences in countries' ability to borrow inter-temporally and across generations through social security. In this environment, global aging triggers uphill capital flows from emerging to advanced economies, while country-specific demographic evolutions reallocate capital towards countries aging more slowly. Our quantitative multi-country overlapping generations model explains a large fraction of long-term capital flows across advanced and emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2018. "Capital Flows in an Aging World," Working Papers hal-03393116, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03393116
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03393116
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    8. Noëmie Lisack & Rana Sajedi & Gregory Thwaites, 2021. "Population Aging and the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 43-80, June.
    9. Jacopo Bonchi & Guido Caracciolo, 2022. "Declining US Natural Interest Rate: Quantifying and Qualifying the Role of Pensions," Working Papers 506, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2022.
    10. Liu, Weifeng Larry, 2022. "Demographic change, national saving and international capital flows," Conference papers 333413, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Mai Dao & Callum Jones, 2018. "Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2018/264, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Wu, Feifei & Xu, Peipei & Gao, Bo & Ma, Jing, 2024. "Export contraction and input switching in an aging China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Miriam Koomen & Laurence Wicht, 2023. "Demographics and Current Account Imbalances: Accounting for the Full Age Distribution," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 719-758, September.
    14. Gevorgyan, Kristine, 2021. "Demographic Changes and Current Account Imbalances," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 46(3), pages 1-22, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; Household Saving; International Capital Flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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