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Routine-Biased Technological Change Does Not Always Lead to Polarisation: Evidence from 10 OECD Countries, 1995-2013

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  • Matthias Haslberger

Abstract

This article deals with a central paradox in the occupational polarisation literature: most scholars accept that technological change is biased against routine-intensive occupations, but in many countries, we do not see the pattern of occupational polarisation that the theory usually predicts. I argue and show empirically using a dataset of 10 OECD countries between 1995 and 2013 that technological change is both routine-biased and skill-biased, but that the result of routine-biased technological change may be occupational upgrading rather than polarisation. This is due to differences in occupational routine-wage hierarchies: only where routine occupations cluster around the middle of the wage distribution are we likely to see polarisation. Where routine occupations are concentrated near the bottom of the wage hierarchy, upgrading occupational change is the norm. Based on research on the US, the former has been widely assumed, but it does not hold true in all countries. Overall, this article shows that much previous work on routine-biased technological change and polarisation was built on premises that do not travel well. This underscores the importance of comparative research for building and testing robust general theories.

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  • Matthias Haslberger, 2021. "Routine-Biased Technological Change Does Not Always Lead to Polarisation: Evidence from 10 OECD Countries, 1995-2013," LIS Working papers 814, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:lis:liswps:814
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