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Labor Market Institutions and Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment

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  • Kawaguchi, Daiji

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Murao, Tetsushi

    (Kyushu University)

Abstract

Graduating from a school during a time of adverse economic conditions has a persistent, harmful effect on workers' subsequent employment opportunities. An analysis of panel data from OECD countries during the 1960-2010 periods reveals that a worker who experiences a one-percentage-point higher unemployment rate while the worker is 16-24 years old has a 0.14 percentage-point higher unemployment rate at ages 25-29 and 0.03 percentage points higher at ages 30-34. The persistence of this negative effect is stronger in countries with stricter employment protection legislation. A composite index for labor market rigidity is constructed and the index is shown to have positive correlation with the persistence. Moderating macroeconomic fluctuations is more important in countries that have more persistent labor-market entry effects on subsequent outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kawaguchi, Daiji & Murao, Tetsushi, 2014. "Labor Market Institutions and Long-Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 8156, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8156
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    2. Corinna Ghirelli, 2015. "Scars of early non-employment for low educated youth: evidence and policy lessons from Belgium," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, December.
    3. Choi, Eleanor Jawon & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The long-term effects of labor market entry in a recession: Evidence from the Asian financial crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Kikuchi, Shinnosuke & Kitao, Sagiri & Mikoshiba, Minamo, 2021. "Who suffers from the COVID-19 shocks? Labor market heterogeneity and welfare consequences in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Mirela Ionela Aceleanu & Andreea Claudia Serban & Cristina Burghelea, 2015. "“Greening” the Youth Employment—A Chance for Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. van Dijk, Mathijs A. & van Dalen, Hendrik P. & Hyde, Martin, 2020. "Who bears the brunt? The impact of banking crises on younger and older workers," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    8. Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2020. "Scars of youth non-employment and labour market conditions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1312, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    10. Ayako Kondo, 2024. "Scars of the job market “ice-age”," Social Science Japan Journal, University of Tokyo and Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 133-148.
    11. Shvartsman, Elena, 2018. "The State of the Economy at Graduation, Wages, and Catch-up Paths: Evidence from Switzerland," IZA Discussion Papers 11622, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Ayako Kondo, 2024. "Scars of the job market “ice-age”," Social Science Japan Journal, University of Tokyo and Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 133-148.
    13. Bart Cockx, 2016. "Do youths graduating in a recession incur permanent losses?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 281-281, August.
    14. Filip KOKOTOVIĆ, 2016. "An empirical study of factors influencing total unemployment rate in comparison to youth unemployment rate in selected EU member-states," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 79-92, Autumn.
    15. Giovanni S. F. Bruno & Misbah Choudhry Tanveer & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2017. "The short- and long-run impacts of financial crises on youth unemployment in OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(34), pages 3372-3394, July.
    16. Adam Brzezinski, 2017. "Synergies in Labour Market Institutions: the Nonlinear Effect of Minimum Wages on Youth Employment," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(2), pages 251-263, June.
    17. Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2023. "Scars of Youth Non-employment and Labour Market Conditions," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(2), pages 475-499, July.
    18. Corinna GHIRELLI, 2015. "Scars of early non-employment in a rigid labour market," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    19. Urbánné Mező, Júlia & Udvari, Beáta, 2016. "Munkapiaci rugalmasság és ifjúsági foglalkoztathatóság [Labour-market flexibility and youth employment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 431-460.
    20. Filip KOKOTOVIĆ, 2016. "An empirical study of factors influencing total unemployment rate in comparison to youth unemployment rate in selected EU member-states," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 79-92, Autumn.
    21. Cervantes, Carla Varona & Cooper, Russell, 2022. "Labor market implications of education mismatch," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; cohort analysis; port of entry; hysteresis; persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • K31 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Labor Law

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