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Impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe. PESETA-Agriculture study

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  • Ana Iglesias
  • Luis Garrote
  • Sonia Quiroga
  • Marta Moneo

Abstract

The objective of the study is to provide a European assessment of the potential effects of climate change on agricultural crop production and monetary estimates of these impacts for the European agricultural sector. The future scenarios incorporate socio economic projections derived from several SRES scenarios and climate projections obtained from global climate models and regional climate models. The work links biophysical and statistical models in a rigorous and testable methodology, based on current understanding of processes of crop growth and development, to quantify crop responses to changing climate conditions. European crop yield changes were modeled under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the period 2071 - 2100 and for the ECHAM4/RCA3 A2 scenario for the period 2011 - 2040. The yield changes include the direct positive effects of CO2 on the crops, the rainfed and irrigated simulations in each district. Although each scenario projects different results, all three scenarios are consistent in the spatial distribution of effects. Crop suitability and productivity increases in Northern Europe are caused by lengthened growing season, decreasing cold effects on growth, and extension of the frost-free period. Crop productivity decreases in Southern Europe are caused by shortening of the growing period, with subsequent negative effects on grain filling. It is very important to notice that the simulations considered no restrictions in water availability for irrigation due to changes in policy. In all cases, the simulations did not include restrictions in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Sonia Quiroga & Marta Moneo, 2009. "Impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe. PESETA-Agriculture study," JRC Research Reports JRC55386, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc55386
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC55386
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    1. John M. Antle & Susan M. Capalbo, 2001. "Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 389-401.
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    1. Altvater, Susanne & de Block, Debora & Bouwma, Irene & Dworak, Thomas & Frelih-Larsen, Ana & Görlach, Benjamin & Hermeling, Claudia & Klostermann, Judith & König, Martin & Leitner, Markus & Marinova, , 2012. "Adaptation measures in the EU: Policies, costs, and economic assessment. "Climate Proofing" of key EU policies," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110558.
    2. K, Sudarkodi & K, Sathyabama, 2011. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Agriculture," MPRA Paper 29784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38566, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Ma, Shaoxiu & Churkina, Galina & Wieland, Ralf & Gessler, Arthur, 2011. "Optimization and evaluation of the ANTHRO-BGC model for winter crops in Europe," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(20), pages 3662-3679.
    5. Wiréhn, Lotten, 2018. "Nordic agriculture under climate change: A systematic review of challenges, opportunities and adaptation strategies for crop production," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 63-74.
    6. Shrestha, Shailesh & Ciaian, Pavel & Himics, Mihay & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin, 2013. "Impacts of Climate Change on EU Agriculture," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, September.
    7. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38585, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2014. "Integration of biophysical and agro-economic models to assess the economic effects of climate change on agriculture: A review of global and EU regional approaches," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-48, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Esra KADANALI & Omer YALCINKAYA, 2020. "Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: Evidence from 20 Biggest Economies of the World," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 93-118, September.
    10. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Dell'Unto, Davide & Deligios, Paola & Doro, Luca & Lacetera, Nicola & Mula, Laura & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Quaresima, Sara & Vitali, Andrea & Roggero, Pier Paol, 2016. "Winners and losers from climate change in agriculture: Insights from a case study in the Mediterranean basin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 65-75.
    11. Auci, Sabrina & Vignani, Donatella, 2014. "Climate change effects and agriculture in Italy: a stochastic frontier analysis at regional level," MPRA Paper 53500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Juan-Carlos Ciscar & Antonio Soria & Clare M. Goodess & Ole B. Christensen & Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Marta Moneo & Sonia Quiroga & Luc Feyen & Rutger Dankers & Robert Nicholls & Julie Richards &, 2009. "Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project," JRC Research Reports JRC55391, Joint Research Centre.
    13. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38587, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    14. Podleśna, A. & Podleśny, J. & Doroszewski, A., 2014. "Usefulness of selected weather indices to evaluation of yellow lupine yielding possibility," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 201-207.
    15. Shrestha, Shailesh & Himics, Mihaly & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Ciaian, Pavel, 2012. "EU wide regional impacts of climate change," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122546, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Štolbová Marie, 2011. "An evaluation of the relevance of EU less favoured areas policy for dry regions of the Czech Republic," European Countryside, Sciendo, vol. 3(4), pages 282-298, January.
    17. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-53.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; agriculture; Europe; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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