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Agent-based modeling of policy induced agri-environmental technology adoption

Author

Listed:
  • Ran Sun

    (University of Saskatchewan)

  • James Nolan

    (University of Saskatchewan)

  • Suren Kulshreshtha

    (University of Saskatchewan)

Abstract

This paper seeks to calibrate the dynamic policy-induced adoption/diffusion of an agri-environmental beneficial technology. The paper develops an agent-based model to integrate the adoption problem into a complex farmer adoption decision-making system involving different components (e.g., GIS environment, agents, network, production and adoption, policy). Based on the model, a case on cost-effectiveness evaluation of a hypothetical agricultural extension (AE) program is exemplified in this study to explain how this model can support the agri-environmental policy design. As a result, farmers’ adoption decision-making under the influence of the AE program can be brought forward to an average ten-year ahead with a higher upper boundary of ultimate adoption rate than no policy scenario. Furthermore, this study presents simulated policy evaluation from different participation rates of the AE program to compare policy effects and thus assess their cost-effectiveness. The comparison results imply that a higher participation rate does not positively increase the performance of the AE program. Our ex-ante agent-based modeling (ABM) simulation method can be applied in agri-environmental policy design, evaluation, and long-term policy monitor. In addition, the model provides a flexible quantitative tool to predict farmers’ policy-induced adoption decision-making and outcomes in a future period. We also introduce potential improvements to extend the inherent farmers’ adoption behavior algorithm, computing capability, and model validation for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Ran Sun & James Nolan & Suren Kulshreshtha, 2022. "Agent-based modeling of policy induced agri-environmental technology adoption," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-26, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:2:y:2022:i:8:d:10.1007_s43546-022-00275-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-022-00275-6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ABM; Beneficial water management practices; Technology adoption; Agri-environmental policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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