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Incorporating Uncertainty In Integrated Assessment Modeling

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  • Mooney, Sian
  • Antle, John M.
  • Capalbo, Susan Marie
  • Paustian, Keith H.

Abstract

This paper examines how uncertainty analysis can be used to examine parameter uncertainty; determine the expected value of model outcomes and the range of possible model outcomes for a non-linear integrated economic and biophysical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Mooney, Sian & Antle, John M. & Capalbo, Susan Marie & Paustian, Keith H., 2003. "Incorporating Uncertainty In Integrated Assessment Modeling," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22225, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea03:22225
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.22225
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/22225/files/sp03mo03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Catherine L. Kling & Richard J. Sexton, 1990. "Confidence Intervals for Elasticities and Flexibilities: Reevaluating the Ratios of Normals Case," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1006-1017.
    2. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Kling, Catherine L. & Sexton, Richard J., 1990. "Confidence Intervals for Elasticities and Flexibilities," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270866, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Daniel Hellerstein, 1995. "Welfare Estimation Using Aggregate and Individual-Observation Models: A Comparison Using Monte Carlo Techniques," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(3), pages 620-630.
    4. John M. Antle & Susan M. Capalbo, 2001. "Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 389-401.
    5. Aggarwal, P. K., 1995. "Uncertainties in crop, soil and weather inputs used in growth models: Implications for simulated outputs and their applications," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 361-384.
    6. Antle, John M. & Capalbo, Susan Marie & Mooney, Sian, 1999. "Optimal Spatial Scale For Evaluating Economic And Environmental Tradeoffs," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21660, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Julian M. Alston & James A. Chalfant, 1991. "Unstable Models from Incorrect Forms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1171-1181.
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    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

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