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Erholung setzt sich nach Dämpfer fort

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Dullien

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Alexander Herzog-Stein

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Peter Hohlfeld

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sabine Stephan

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sebastian Watzka

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft setzte ihren Erholungskurs nach dem pandemiebedingten Einbruch bis in den Herbst hinein fort. Im Winterhalbjahr wird die Weltkonjunktur infolge gestiegener Infektionszahlen und damit einhergehender Kontakteinschränkungen einen Dämpfer erfahren. Für das Jahr 2021 ist im Jahresverlauf eine deutliche Erholung der Weltwirtschaft zu erwarten. Der Welthandel dürfte nach dem Einbruch in diesem Jahr (-10,9 %) um 9,3 % zunehmen. Die deutsche Wirtschaft befand sich im Jahr 2020 in großen Turbulenzen. Im Jahresdurchschnitt wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) voraussichtlich um 5,0 % sinken Für den Einbruch waren vor allem die Unterbrechung der internationalen Lieferketten und der globale Nachfrageeinbruch verantwortlich; die unmittelbaren Maßnahmen der Kontaktbeschränkung in Deutschland hatten infolge mangelnder Konsummöglichkeiten zudem gravierende Auswirkungen auf den privaten Verbrauch. Die schnelle Reaktion der Wirtschaftspolitik verhinderte einen noch viel stärkeren Rückgang. Für das Abschlussquartal 2020 ist mit einer annähernden Stagnation der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion zu rechnen, da infolge steigender Infektionsraten abermals Kontaktbeschränkungen verfügt wurden. Für 2021 ist im Jahresverlauf mit einer kraftvollen Erholung der deutschen Konjunktur zu rechnen. Die Jahresverlaufsrate beträgt im Jahr 2021 6 % nach -3,9 % in diesem Jahr. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2021 dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) um 4,9 % zunehmen. Die Arbeitslosenquote liegt bei 5,7 % (2020: 5,9 %). Die Inflationsrate beträgt 1,3 % nach 0,5 % in diesem Jahr.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Dullien & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Peter Hohlfeld & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka, 2020. "Erholung setzt sich nach Dämpfer fort," IMK Report 163-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:163-2020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, pages 219-268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jorra, Markus & Esser, Andreas & Slopek, Ulf D., 2018. "The import content of expenditure components and the size of international spillovers," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 244, pages 21-29, May.
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    1. Sebastian Dullien & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka, 2021. "Die Erholung nachhaltig gestalten: Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen 2021," IMK Report 164-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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