IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/107930.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Moszoro, Marian

Abstract

We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure— electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation. Using rich firm-level panel data from 41 countries over 19 years, we estimate that US$1 million of public spending in infrastructure create 3–7 jobs in advanced economies, 10–17 jobs in emerging market economies, and 16–30 jobs in low-income developing countries. As a comparison, US$1 million public spending on R&D yields 5–11 jobs in R&D in OECD countries. Green investment and investment with a larger R&D component deliver higher employment effect. Overall, we estimate that one percent of global GDP in public investment can create more than seven million jobs worldwide through its direct employment effects alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Moszoro, Marian, 2021. "The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment," MPRA Paper 107930, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107930
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/107930/1/MPRA_paper_107930.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel J. Wilson, 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 251-282, August.
    2. Marian Moszoro & Gonzalo Araya & Fernanda Ruiz-Nuñez & Jordan Schwartz, 2015. "What Drives Private Participation in Infrastructure Developing Countries?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Stefano Caselli & Guido Corbetta & Veronica Vecchi (ed.), Public Private Partnerships for Infrastructure and Business Development, chapter 0, pages 19-44, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "The Origins of State Capacity: Property Rights, Taxation, and Politics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1218-1244, September.
    4. Garin, Andrew, 2019. "Putting America to work, where? Evidence on the effectiveness of infrastructure construction as a locally targeted employment policy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 108-131.
    5. Trevor Houser & Shashank Mohan & Robert Heilmayr, 2009. "A Green Recovery? Assessing US Economic Stimulus and the Prospects for International Coordination," Policy Briefs PB09-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Mummolo, Jonathan & Peterson, Erik, 2018. "Improving the Interpretation of Fixed Effects Regression Results," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 829-835, October.
    7. Vitor Gaspar & David Amaglobeli & Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Delphine Prady & Mauricio Soto, "undated". "Fiscal Policy and Development; Human, Social, and Physical Investments for the SDGs," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/09, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Vitor Gaspar & David Amaglobeli & Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Delphine Prady & Mauricio Soto, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and Development: Human, Social, and Physical Investments for the SDGs," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2019/003, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7ii74oepuk9mc8fhilvvhfmbgp is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Garrett-Peltier, Heidi, 2017. "Green versus brown: Comparing the employment impacts of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fossil fuels using an input-output model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 439-447.
    13. Irene Yackovlev & Ms. Zuzana Murgasova & Fei Liu & Gohar Minasyan & Ke Wang, 2020. "How to Operationalize IMF Engagement on Social Spending during and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 2020/002, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, pages 219-268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Anna Aizer & Shari Eli & Adriana Lleras-Muney & Keyoung Lee, 2020. "Do Youth Employment Programs Work? Evidence from the New Deal," NBER Working Papers 27103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dimitris Papanikolaou & Lawrence D W Schmidt, 2022. "Working Remotely and the Supply-Side Impact of COVID-19 [The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 53-111.
    17. Michael Jacobs, 2012. "Green Growth: Economic Theory and Political Discourse," GRI Working Papers 92, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    18. David Popp & Francesco Vona & Giovanni Marin & Ziqiao Chen, 2020. "The Employment Impact of Green Fiscal Push: Evidence from the American Recovery Act," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403066, HAL.
    19. Edward B. Barbier, 2010. "Green Stimulus, Green Recovery and Global Imbalances," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 11(2), pages 149-177, April.
    20. Ms. Anja Baum & Clay Hackney & Mr. Paulo A Medas & Mouhamadou Sy, 2019. "Governance and State-Owned Enterprises: How Costly is Corruption?," IMF Working Papers 2019/253, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Vitor Gaspar & David Amaglobeli & Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Delphine Prady & Mauricio Soto, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and Development; Human, Social, and Physical Investments for the SDGs," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 19/03, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.
    2. Ziqiao Chen & Giovanni Marin & David Popp & Francesco Vona, 2020. "Green Stimulus in a Post-pandemic Recovery: the Role of Skills for a Resilient Recovery," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 901-911, August.
    3. Matteo Ficarra, 2024. "Public Spending, Green Growth, and Corruption: a Local Fiscal Multiplier Analysis for Italian Provinces," IHEID Working Papers 11-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Francisco Louçã & Alexandre Abreu & Gonçalo Pessa Costa, 2021. "Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions [Forward guidance without common knowledge]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 273-296.
    5. Gianni Vaggi & Luca Frigerio, 2021. "Foreign debt sustainability and human development in Sub Saharan Africa," DEM Working Papers Series 203, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Matthew Stephenson & Mohammed Faiz Shaul Hamid & Augustine Peter & Karl P. Sauvant & Adnan Seric & Lucia Tajoli, 2021. "More and better investment now! How unlocking sustainable and digital investment flows can help achieve the SDGs," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 152-165, March.
    7. Marina Capparucci & Emanuela Ghignoni & Alina Verashchagina & Natalia Vorozhbit, 2015. "The Drivers of Innovation in the Italian Manufacturing Sector," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 3, pages 111-128.
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    9. Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2003. "Unemployment in Britain: A European Success Story," CESifo Working Paper Series 981, CESifo.
    11. Apergis, Nicholas, 2005. "An estimation of the natural rate of unemployment in Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 91-99, February.
    12. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    13. Liotti, Giorgio, 2020. "Labour market flexibility, economic crisis and youth unemployment in Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 150-162.
    14. Boyer, Robert, 1992. "La crise de la macroéconomie, une conséquence de la méconnaissance des institutions?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 43-68, mars et j.
    15. Adsera, Alicia & Boix, Carles, 2000. "Must we choose? European unemployment, American inequality, and the impact of education and labor market institutions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 611-638, November.
    16. Lars Kunze & Nicolai Suppa, 2014. "Bowling Alone or Bowling at All? The Effect of Unemployment on Social Participation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0510, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Atilla Aydın, 2024. "Economic Factors Affecting the Collective Bargaining Agreement Coverage Rate in Turkey: Cointegration Approach," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, vol. 0(40), pages 134-150, June.
    18. John C. Soper, 2004. "European Labor Markets and Structural Reform : Does the Euro Have a Future?," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 20(Fall 2004), pages 112-124.
    19. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Insider-outsider labor markets, hysteresis and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 1506, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2020.
    20. repec:zbw:ifwkwp:1309 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Marjan Petreski & Nikica Mojsoska-Blazevski, 2013. "Real Wages in the Manufacturing Industry in Macedonia: The Role of Macroeconomic Factors, with Reference to Recession Times," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 113-126, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crisis; Public Investment; Infrastructure; Stimulus; Employment; COVID; Recovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.