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Fiscal Substitution in Spending for Highway Infrastructure: Working Paper 2021-13

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  • Sheila Campbell and Chad Shirley

Abstract

In this working paper, the Congressional Budget Office provides estimates of how much state and local governments that receive federal grants for highway capital projects substitute that funding for their own spending on highway capital. We find that state and local governments reduce their own per capita spending on highway capital by 26 cents for an additional dollar of annual federal formula grants; that finding is toward the lower end of a broad range of estimates in the existing literature. The rate of substitution decreases as state and local governments run larger

Suggested Citation

  • Sheila Campbell and Chad Shirley, 2021. "Fiscal Substitution in Spending for Highway Infrastructure: Working Paper 2021-13," Working Papers 57430, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:57430
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-10/57430-Fiscal-Substitution.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, pages 219-268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. repec:cbo:report:516281 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2017. "Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 253-292, May.
    4. Congressional Budget Office, 2016. "The Macroeconomic and Budgetary Effects of Federal Investment," Reports 51628, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "Fiscal Substitution of Investment for Highway Infrastructure: Working Paper 2018-08," Working Papers 54371, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Bill Dupor, 2017. "So, Why Didn’t the 2009 Recovery Act Improve the Nation’s Highways and Bridges?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(2), pages 169-182.
    7. Brian Knight, 2002. "Endogenous Federal Grants and Crowd-out of State Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the Federal Highway Aid Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 71-92, March.
    8. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    9. repec:cbo:report:516282 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R53 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Public Facility Location Analysis; Public Investment and Capital Stock

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