Infrastructure and economic growth in the context of the evolutionary theory of economic policy

The paper examines the question of whether large-scale investments in infrastructure that are not directly related to production development projects are effective? Efficiency refers to accelerating economic growth on a sustainable basis. A review of research results shows that the effects on economic growth of these investments are of a complex, nonlinear nature, which is due to the evolutionary nature of the effectiveness of investments in infrastructure. Application of the approach of evolutionary economic policy, which assumes the dependence of economic policy on the stage of development of the country, allows us to substantiate the following hypothesis. A significant impact of infrastructure on growth is found for countries that are far behind (the direct channel predominantly works - increasing the productivity of existing factors), where there is a critical lack of infrastructure. In this case, investments in infrastructure can outstrip the dynamics of the economy, contributing to its acceleration. As infrastructure capital accumulates, its return decreases, and the efficiency of the government and the market is at a low level. In this case, the influence of infrastructure is weak if the country tries to rely on the institutions of a developed market, and strong if the country relies on the institutions of catching-up development. In the first case, it is optimal for the infrastructure to follow the development of the economy, in the second - to lead. As the country develops, the efficiency of the market and government increases, and as a result, the work of the complementarity channel improves (when there is an influx of new private capital). This channel is focused on new projects, territory development, creation of new or modernization of existing production facilities. In addition, a more effective government is better at identifying and eliminating development bottlenecks. Investments in infrastructure can again outpace economic dynamics, ensuring its growth. For the Russian economy, where the efficiency of the government and the market, the supply and quality of infrastructure and human capital are at average levels, and there are not enough production development projects, one cannot expect accelerated growth from investments in infrastructure.