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The import content of expenditure components and the size of international spillovers

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  • Jorra, Markus
  • Esser, Andreas
  • Slopek, Ulf D.

Abstract

For a large number of countries, we augment the specification of import demand in NiGEM by accounting for different import contents of individual expenditure components. Three examples illustrate that these changes have important implications for model outcomes. In the case of the recently enacted US tax reform and in a ‘hard landing’ scenario for China, spillovers become more pronounced while the domestic effects turn out more muted than in the default specification. The reverse is true for the ramifications of a public investment push in Germany. Hence, we believe that our add-on to NiGEM can be a useful tool for robustness exercises, in particular for spillover studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorra, Markus & Esser, Andreas & Slopek, Ulf D., 2018. "The import content of expenditure components and the size of international spillovers," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 244, pages 21-29, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:244:y:2018:i::p:r21-r29_11
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Dullien & Ekaterina Jürgens & Christoph Paetz & Sebastian Watzka, 2021. "Wachstums- und Verschuldungseffekte einer kreditfinanzierten öffentlichen Investitionsoffensive [Growth and Debt Effects of a Credit-Financed Public Investment Offensive]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(9), pages 700-705, September.
    2. Sebastian Dullien & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Peter Hohlfeld & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka, 2020. "Erholung setzt sich nach Dämpfer fort," IMK Report 163-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Xu Bing & Moritz Roth & Daniel Santabárbara, 2019. "Global impact of a slowdown in China," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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