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Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Author

Listed:
  • Karel Musil
  • Mikhail Pranovich
  • Mr. Jan Vlcek

Abstract

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Karel Musil & Mikhail Pranovich & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2018. "Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2018/254, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/254
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chandranath Amarasekara & Rahul Anand & Kithsiri Ehelepola & Hemantha Ekanayake & Vishuddhi Jayawickrema & Sujeetha Jegajeevan & Csaba Kober & Tharindi Nugawela & Sergey Plotnikov & Adam Remo & Poongo, 2018. "An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2018/149, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alex Miksjuk & Mr. Sam Ouliaris & Mikhail Pranovich, 2015. "The Game of Anchors: Studying the Causes of Currency Crises in Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2015/281, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
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    5. Mirko Djukic & Tibor Hledik & Jiri Polansky & Ljubica Trajcev & Jan Vlcek, 2017. "A DSGE Model with Financial Dollarization - the Case of Serbia," Working Papers 2017/02, Czech National Bank.
    6. Kevin Clinton & Tibor Hlédik & Mr. Tomás Holub & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2017. "Czech Magic: Implementing Inflation-Forecast Targeting at the CNB," IMF Working Papers 2017/021, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Michal Andrle & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Enrico G Berkes & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek & Rogelio Morales, 2013. "Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya," IMF Working Papers 2013/239, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mokhtar Benlamine & Mr. Aleš Bulíř & Meryem Farouki & Ágnes Horváth & Faical Hossaini & Hasnae El Idrissi & Zineb Iraoui & Mihály Kovács & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Anass Maaroufi & Katalin Szilágyi & Moha, 2018. "Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 2018/027, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jaromír Beneš & Jaromír Hurník & David Vávra, 2008. "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting: Modeling the Exchange Rate in Reduced-Form New Keynesian Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(03-04), pages 166-194, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andres Gonzalez & Alexander Guarin & Diego A. Rodriguez-Guzman & Hernando Vargas-Herrera, 2020. "4GM: A New Model for the Monetary Policy Analysis in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1106, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Ana Živkovic, Jelena Momcilovic, Zorica Roljic Mihanovic, Danilo Cerovic & Ana Živkovic & Jelena Momcilovic & Zorica Roljic Mihanovic & Danilo Cerovic, 2022. "Structural changes to quarterly projection model," Working Papers Bulletin 13, National Bank of Serbia.

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