IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nsb/bilten/13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural changes to quarterly projection model

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Živkovic, Jelena Momcilovic, Zorica Roljic Mihanovic, Danilo Cerovic
  • Ana Živkovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Jelena Momcilovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Zorica Roljic Mihanovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Danilo Cerovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

Abstract

In this paper we present structural changes to the macroeconomic model used in the National Bank of Serbia for medium-term inflation forecasting, made in the period since inflation targeting was first introduced as the monetary policy regime. We describe in detail three changes related to inflation determinants. The first change has to do with the aggregation of overall inflation components, with the goal of linking them more directly to the underlying factors driving inflation. The second change is an extension of the model to explicitly include the effect of private sector wages on inflation. The third change is the inclusion of the effect of fiscal policy on aggregate demand, which has increased in significance in the period since the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. From the perspective of a reduced forecast error, the changes are justified by performing historical simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Živkovic, Jelena Momcilovic, Zorica Roljic Mihanovic, Danilo Cerovic & Ana Živkovic & Jelena Momcilovic & Zorica Roljic Mihanovic & Danilo Cerovic, 2022. "Structural changes to quarterly projection model," Working Papers Bulletin 13, National Bank of Serbia.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsb:bilten:13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbs.rs/documents-eng/publikacije/wp_bulletin/wp_bulletin_09_22_1.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karel Musil & Mikhail Pranovich & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2018. "Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2018/254, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jose Carreno, 2020. "Housing Booms and the U.S. Productivity Puzzle," Working Papers 20-4, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Thomas Lubik, 2003. "Investment Spending,Equilibrium Indeterminacy and the Interactions of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 490, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    3. Sveen, Tommy, 2014. "Capital accumulation, sectoral heterogeneity and the Taylor principle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-28.
    4. Pablo Burriel & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "MEDEA: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 175-243, March.
    5. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2013. "Sector Specific News Shocks in Aggregate and Sectoral Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4269, CESifo.
    7. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    8. Donald L. Kohn, 2008. "Lessons for central bankers from a Phillips curve framework," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2005. "Price- and wage- inflation targeting: variations on a theme by Erceg, Henderson, and Levin," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 181-215.
    10. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    11. Christopher Erceg & Christopher Gust & David López-Salido, 2007. "The Transmission of Domestic Shocks in Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 89-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Alexander Mihailov & Giovanni Razzu & Zhe Wang, 2019. "Heterogeneous effects of single monetary policy on unemployment rates in the largest EMU economies," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-07, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    13. David Amirault & Paul Fenton & Thérèse Laflèche, 2013. "Asking About Wages: Results from the Bank of Canada’s Wage Setting Survey of Canadian Companies," Discussion Papers 13-1, Bank of Canada.
    14. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A Yildirim, "undated". "Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    15. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    16. Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2013. "Distortionary tax instruments and implementable monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 219-243.
    17. Mayumi Ojima & Junnosuke Shino & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Retailer Market Concentration, Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 101-127, March.
    18. Firouz Gahvari & Luca Micheletto, 2019. "Heterogeneity, monetary policy, Mirrleesian taxes, and the Friedman rule," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 67(4), pages 983-1018, June.
    19. Ester Faia & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2014. "Labor Selection, Turnover Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 115-144, February.
    20. Queijo, Virginia, 2005. "How Important are Financial Frictions in the U.S. and Euro Area?," Seminar Papers 738, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; model; prices; labour market; wages; fiscal impulse;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsb:bilten:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marko Miseljic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbjgvyu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.