IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2013-239.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Andrle
  • Mr. Andrew Berg
  • Mr. Enrico G Berkes
  • Mr. Rafael A Portillo
  • Mr. Jan Vlcek
  • Rogelio Morales

Abstract

We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Andrle & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Enrico G Berkes & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek & Rogelio Morales, 2013. "Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya," IMF Working Papers 2013/239, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/239
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41067
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    2. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
    3. Mr. Simon T Gray, 2011. "Central Bank Balances and Reserve Requirements," IMF Working Papers 2011/036, International Monetary Fund.
    4. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1988. "Targets and Instruments of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 2668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kevin Clinton & Jihad Dagher & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Ali Alichi & Marshall Mills, 2010. "A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting and Application to Ghana," IMF Working Papers 2010/025, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Claudio E. V. Borio, 1997. "Monetary policy operating procedures in industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 40, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Mr. Rafael A Portillo, 2010. "On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework: An Application to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/134, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Michal Andrle & Mr. Andrew Berg & Rogelio Morales & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2013. "Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya," IMF Working Papers 2013/061, International Monetary Fund.
    10. W. A. Razzak, 2003. "Is the Taylor Rule Really Different from the McCallum Rule?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 445-457, October.
    11. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    12. Bindseil, Ulrich, 2004. "Monetary Policy Implementation: Theory, past, and present," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199274543.
    13. Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Luisa Charry & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2013. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach," IMF Working Papers 2013/197, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Grace B Li & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2016. "VAR meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/090, International Monetary Fund.
    2. García-Cicco, Javier, 2022. "Alternative monetary-policy instruments and limited credibility: An exploration," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    3. Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Ms. Yulia Ustyugova, 2015. "A Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 2015/170, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Pei-Tha Gan, 2019. "Economic uncertainty, precautionary motive and the augmented form of money demand function," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 397-423, December.
    5. Karel Musil & Mikhail Pranovich & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2018. "Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2018/254, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morgunov, V.I. (Моргунов, В.И.), 2016. "The Liquidity Management of the Banking Sector and the Short-Term Money Market Interest Rates [Управление Ликвидностью Банковского Сектора И Краткосрочной Процентной Ставкой Денежного Рынка]," Working Papers 21311, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Eric Monnet & Miklos Vari, 2023. "A Dilemma between Liquidity Regulation and Monetary Policy: Some History and Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 915-944, June.
    3. Walter, Timo, 2019. "Janus Face of Inflation Targeting_Walter_PrePrint," OSF Preprints 9fmhe, Center for Open Science.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    5. van Eeghen, Piet-Hein, 2021. "Funding money-creating banks: Cash funding, balance sheet funding and the moral hazard of currency elasticity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Mr. Rafael A Portillo, 2010. "On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework: An Application to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/134, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Eric Monnet & Miklos Vari, 2019. "Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy," IMF Working Papers 2019/176, International Monetary Fund.
    8. A. Asongu, Simplice & E. Folarin, Oludele & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2020. "The Long-Run Stability of Money in the ProposedE ast AfricanMonetary Union," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(3), pages 457-478.
    9. Robert Rennhack, 1991. "La Conducción de la Política Monetaria," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 28(83), pages 11-20.
    10. Toporowski, Jan, 2006. "Open market operations: beyond the new consensus," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2006, Bank of Finland.
    11. Ulrich Bindseil & Philipp J. König, 2013. "Basil J. Moore's Horizontalists and Verticalists: an appraisal 25 years later," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 383—390-3, October.
    12. Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2018. "Features of Interest Rate Policy Under the Inflation Targeting Regime [Особенности Процентной Политики При Режиме Таргетирования Инфляции]," Working Papers 031812, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    13. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2023. "Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of U.S. Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 319, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    14. John Hawkins, 2005. "Globalisation and monetary operations in emerging economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and monetary policy in emerging markets, volume 23, pages 59-80, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Peter Docherty, 2012. "Keynes’s General Theory, the Quantity Theory of Money and Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Thomas Cate (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Toporowski, Jan, 2006. "Open market operations : beyond the new consensus," Research Discussion Papers 14/2006, Bank of Finland.
    18. Haider Ali & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2014. "Choice of Monetary Policy Instrument under Targeting Regimes in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:102, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    19. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2023. "Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 2306, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Lama, Ruy & Medina, Juan Pablo, 2020. "Mundell meets Poole: Managing capital flows with multiple instruments in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    21. Kui-Wai Li, 2013. "The US monetary performance prior to the 2008 crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3450-3461, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.