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Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Di Giovanni, Julian
  • Kalemli-Özcan, á¹¢ebnem
  • Silva, Alvaro
  • Yıldırım, Muhammed A.

Abstract

We employ a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to analyze the factors driving pandemic-era inflation. The model incorporates both sector-specific and aggregate shocks, which propagate through the global trade and production network and generate demand and supply imbalances, leading to inflation and spillovers. The baseline quantitative exercise matches changes in aggregate and sectoral prices and wages for a sample of countries including the United States, Euro Area, China, and Russia. Our findings indicate that supply-chain bottlenecks ignited inflation in 2020, followed by a surge in prices driven by aggregate demand shocks from 2021 through 2022, exacerbated by rising energy prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, á¹¢ebnem & Silva, Alvaro & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 18628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18628
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Global production network; International spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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