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Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel

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  • Banerjee, Ryan
  • Hofmann, Boris
  • Mehrotra, Aaron N.

Abstract

Using firm-level data for 18 major global economies, we find that the exchange rate affects corpo-rate investment through a financial channel: exchange rate depreciation dampens corporate invest-ment through firm leverage and FX debt. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a stylised model of credit risk in which exchange rates can affect investment through FX debt or borrowing in local currency from foreign lenders. Empirically, the channel is more pronounced in emerging market economies (EMEs), reflecting their greater dependence on foreign funding and their less developed financial systems. Moreover, we find that exchange rate depreciation induces highly leveraged firms to increase their cash holdings, supporting from a different angle the notion of a financial channel of the exchange rate. Overall, these findings suggest that the large depreciation of EME currencies since 2011 was probably a significant amplifying factor in the recent investment slowdown in these economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Ryan & Hofmann, Boris & Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2020_006
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    2. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," BIS Working Papers 839, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Christopher Loewald, 2021. "Macro works applying integrated policy frameworks to South Africa," Working Papers 11016, South African Reserve Bank.
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    5. Dao, Mai Chi & Minoiu, Camelia & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2021. "Corporate investment and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Hyeon‐seung Huh & David Kim, 2021. "The risk‐taking channel of currency appreciation: A structural VAR investigation of Asian emerging market economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 313-331, December.
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Christopher Loewald, 2021. "Macro works a decisiontree approach to exchange rate policy," Working Papers 11009, South African Reserve Bank.
    9. Boris Hofmann & Nikhil Patel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2022. "Original sin redux: a model-based evaluation," BIS Working Papers 1004, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Yasin Mimir, 2023. "Fear (no more) of Floating: Asset Purchases and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working Papers 57, European Stability Mechanism.
    11. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Purevdorj, Munkhbayar & Batjargal, Anand, 2024. "The macroeconomic effects of exchange rate movements in a commodity-exporting developing economy," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    12. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Beltrán, Paula & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2023. "The macro-financial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    14. Bampi, Rodrigo E. & Colombo, Jefferson A., 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of foreign exchange appreciation on industrial output: Evidence from disaggregated manufacturing data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 431-451.
    15. Shesadri Banerjee & M S Mohanty, 2021. "US monetary policy and the financial channel of the exchange rate: evidence from India," BIS Working Papers 945, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Aaron Mehrotra & Jochen Schanz, 2020. "Financial market development and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 1-18, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Bu, Ya & Du, Xin & Wang, Yuting & Liu, Shuyu & Tang, Min & Li, Hui, 2024. "Digital inclusive finance: A lever for SME financing?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate investment; emerging markets; exchange rates; financial channel; financial constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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