IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabkbe/201116.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projektion des Arbeitskräfteangebots bis 2050: Rückgang und Alterung sind nicht mehr aufzuhalten (Labour supply up to 2050: Shrinking and ageing labour force is inevitable)

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Brigitte

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"The labour market in Germany will undergo a dramatic change due to the demographic development. Solely for demographic reasons the labour force would decrease by 18 million workers between 2008 and 2050. However an upward shift in the labour participation rates of women and older age groups in conjunction with migration will dampen the demographic effect. In case of an average net migration of 100.000 persons per year the reduction of the labour force is projected to be 12 million until 2050. Moreover the age structure reveals dramatic shifts. Whereas the number of younger and middle aged workers will be lowered even more than the total labour force, the ageing of the baby boom generation will boost the number of older workers. All in all a shortage of qualified workers in the near future seems to become more likely than ever." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte, 2011. "Projektion des Arbeitskräfteangebots bis 2050: Rückgang und Alterung sind nicht mehr aufzuhalten (Labour supply up to 2050: Shrinking and ageing labour force is inevitable)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201116, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2011/kb1611.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Fuchs & Aaron George Grech & Asghar Zaidi, 2006. "Pension Policy in EU25 and its Possible Impact on Elderly Poverty," CASE Papers case116, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    2. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Sandra Müllbacher, 2013. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). New Results," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46830.
    3. Yen-hsin Alice Cheng & Elke Loichinger, 2017. "The Future Labor Force of an Aging Taiwan: The Importance of Education and Female Labor Supply," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(3), pages 441-466, June.
    4. Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer, 2014. "Einfluss von Bildungsexpansion und Pensionsreformen auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung. Prognose der Erwerbsquote und des Arbeitskräfteangebotes bis 2030," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(6), pages 411-426, June.
    5. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    6. Grech, Aaron George, 2015. "Pension reforms in the 1990s and during the financial crisis: More of the same?," MPRA Paper 66894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Christine Mayrhuber & Gerhard Rünstler & Thomas Url & Werner Eichhorst & Michael J. Kendzia & Maarten Gerard & Connie Nielsen, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU. Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 43938.
    8. Jensen, Henning Tarp, 2009. "General equilibrium impact evaluation of road sector investment programs in Ghana," Conference papers 331858, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Cem Baslevent & Hasan Kirmanoglu, 2015. "Quality of government, egalitarianism, and welfare state attitudes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2877-2887.
    10. Elke Loichinger & Alexia Prskawetz, 2017. "Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(40), pages 1185-1208.
    11. Giuseppe Carone & Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Gilles Mourre & Werner Röger, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 253, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Abigail Marie Rapa, "undated". "A cohort approach to project the labour participation rate in Malta," CBM Policy Papers PP/04/2019, Central Bank of Malta.
    13. Thomas Url & Rob J Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    14. Ludi Simpson, 2017. "National and local labour force projections for the UK," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 32(2), pages 129-149, March.
    15. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    16. Grech, Aaron George, 2007. "Pension policy in EU25 and its impact on pension benefits," MPRA Paper 33669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Sue Yeandle & Gary Fry, 2010. "The Potential of ICT in supporting Domiciliary Care in England," JRC Research Reports JRC56438, Joint Research Centre.
    18. Cem Baslevent & Hasan Kirmanoglu, 2015. "A Multilevel Analysis of Individuals' Attitudes Toward Welfare State Responsibilities," Working Papers 941, Economic Research Forum, revised Sep 2015.
    19. Karsten Wasiluk, 2014. "Technology Adoption and Demographic Change," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    20. Nick Adnett & Stephen Hardy, 2007. "The peculiar case of age discrimination: Americanising the European social model?," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 29-41, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.