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Projektion des Arbeitskräfteangebots bis 2050: Rückgang und Alterung sind nicht mehr aufzuhalten (Labour supply up to 2050: Shrinking and ageing labour force is inevitable)

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Brigitte

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"The labour market in Germany will undergo a dramatic change due to the demographic development. Solely for demographic reasons the labour force would decrease by 18 million workers between 2008 and 2050. However an upward shift in the labour participation rates of women and older age groups in conjunction with migration will dampen the demographic effect. In case of an average net migration of 100.000 persons per year the reduction of the labour force is projected to be 12 million until 2050. Moreover the age structure reveals dramatic shifts. Whereas the number of younger and middle aged workers will be lowered even more than the total labour force, the ageing of the baby boom generation will boost the number of older workers. All in all a shortage of qualified workers in the near future seems to become more likely than ever." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte, 2011. "Projektion des Arbeitskräfteangebots bis 2050: Rückgang und Alterung sind nicht mehr aufzuhalten (Labour supply up to 2050: Shrinking and ageing labour force is inevitable)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201116, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201116
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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