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A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence

Author

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  • Ingrid Groessl

    (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg))

  • Artur Tarassow

    (Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg))

Abstract

In this article we derive a microfounded model of money demand under uncertainty built on intertemporally optimizing risk-averse households. Deriving a complete solution of the optimization problem taking the intertemporal budget constraint into account where linearization procedures in our paper take a risky steady state as benchmark. The solution leads to ambiguous effects w.r.t. to the impact of capital market risk as well as ination risk, which is due to the interplay of substitution and opposing income effects. The econometric results reveal that U.S. households increase their demand for money in response to positive changes in ination risk and capital market risk, respectively, with both effects lasting permanently.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2015. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201504, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, revised Jan 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201504
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    1. Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2015. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201504, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, revised Jan 2018.
    2. Allan Kayongo & Asumani Guloba, 2018. "Economic Uncertainty and Money Demand Stability in Uganda during Financial Liberalization: A GARCH and ARDL Approach," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 70-86, July.
    3. Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Forecasting growth of U.S. aggregate and household-sector M2 after 2000 using economic uncertainty measures," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201702, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    4. Tarassow, Artur, 2019. "Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 443-457.
    5. Allan Kayongo & Asumani Guloba & Joseph Muvawala, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate on Monetary Policy in Emerging Countries: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach in Uganda," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(5), pages 24-37, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Demand; Uncertainty; Ination Risk; Capital Market Risk; Monetary Policy; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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