IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20101238.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Household money holdings in the euro area: An explorative investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Seitz, Franz
  • von Landesberger, Julian

Abstract

In this paper we analyse household holdings of the broad monetary aggregate M3 in the euro area from 1991 until 2009. We develop four models, two in nominal, two in real terms, with satisfactory economic and statistical properties. The main determinants are a transactions variable, wealth considerations, opportunity costs and uncertainty. The models are robust to different estimation strategies, samples considered and a multitude of mis-specification tests. The exercise also provides insights that go beyond the portfolio allocation decision of households. According to our analysis, it is quite apparent that in equilibrium, households jointly determine consumption and broad money holdings both influenced by wealth as well as interest rates. JEL Classification: E41, C23, C32, D21

Suggested Citation

  • Seitz, Franz & von Landesberger, Julian, 2010. "Household money holdings in the euro area: An explorative investigation," Working Paper Series 1238, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101238
    Note: 514030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1238.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2010. "Sectoral money demand and the great disinflation in the US," Working Paper Series 1218, European Central Bank.
    2. Butkiewicz, James L. & McConnell, Margaret Mary, 1995. "The stability of the demand for money and M1 velocity: Evidence from the sectoral data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 233-243.
    3. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    4. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2000. "The representative household’s demand for money in a cointegrated VAR model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 162-176.
    5. Anders Rygh Swensen, 2006. "Bootstrap Algorithms for Testing and Determining the Cointegration Rank in VAR Models -super-1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1699-1714, November.
    6. Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-245, April.
    7. Hiroshi Fujiki & Cheng Hsiao, 2008. "Aggregate and Household Demand for Money: Evidence from the Public Opinion Survey on Household Financial Assets and Liabilities," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 26, pages 159-194, December.
    8. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time‐varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, April.
    9. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    10. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 2004. "Money Demand and Economic Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 04-25, Bank of Canada.
    11. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    12. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2002. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 317-351, April.
    13. Read, Vicky, 1996. "Sectoral disaggregation of German M3," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Robert E. Lucas, 2001. "Inflation and Welfare," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 4, pages 96-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 2004. "The Demand for Money in a Stochastic Environment," Staff Working Papers 04-7, Bank of Canada.
    16. Joon Y. Park, 2003. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1845-1895, November.
    17. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Stock Market Downswing and the Stability of European Monetary Union Money Demand," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 395-402, October.
    18. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    19. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    20. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
    21. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    22. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    23. Beyer, Andreas, 2009. "A Stable Model for Euro Area Money Demand: Revisiting the Role of Wealth," Working Paper Series 1111, European Central Bank.
    24. Detken, Carsten & Adalid, Ramón, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
    25. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    26. Chadha, Jagjit S & Haldane, Andrew G & Janssen, Norbert G J, 1998. "Shoe-Leather Costs Reconsidered," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 363-382, March.
    27. Collins, Sean & Anderson, Richard, 1998. "Modeling U.S. Households' Demands for Liquid Wealth in an Era of Financial Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 83-101, February.
    28. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    29. Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Empirical modeling of money demand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 295-315.
    30. de Bondt, Gabe, 2009. "Euro area money demand: empirical evidence on the role of equity and labour markets," Working Paper Series 1086, European Central Bank.
    31. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    32. Tin, Jan, 2008. "An empirical examination of the inventory-theoretic model of precautionary money demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 204-205, April.
    33. Laurence Boone & Paul Noord, 2008. "Wealth effects on money demand in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 525-536, June.
    34. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Chang, Yoosoon & Park, Joon Y. & Song, Kevin, 2006. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 703-739, August.
    36. Carmen Martínez-Carrascal & Julian von Landesberger, 2010. "Explaining the demand for money by non-financial corporations in the euro area: A macro and a micro view," Working Papers 1033, Banco de España.
    37. Warne, Anders, 2006. "Bayesian inference in cointegrated VAR models: with applications to the demand for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 692, European Central Bank.
    38. repec:bla:obuest:v:63:y:2001:i:4:p:475-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. von Landesberger, Julian & Martinez-Carrascal, Carmen, 2010. "Explaining the money demand of non-financial corporations in the Euro area: A macro and a micro view," Working Paper Series 1257, European Central Bank.
    40. Livio Stracca, 2003. "The Functional Form Of The Demand For Euro Area M1," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(2), pages 172-204, March.
    41. Alessandro Calza & Andrea Zaghini, 2010. "Sectoral Money Demand and the Great Disinflation in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1663-1678, December.
    42. Lemke, Wolfgang & Greiber, Claus, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    43. Cecily C. Garver & Lawrence J. Radecki, 1987. "The household demand for money: estimates from cross-sectional data," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Spr), pages 29-34.
    44. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
    45. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_031 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Ryland Thomas, 1997. "The Demand for M4: A Sectoral Analysis. Part 1 - The Personal Sector," Bank of England working papers 61, Bank of England.
    47. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    48. Andrew Brigden & Paul Mizen, 1999. "Money, credit and investment in UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 100, Bank of England.
    49. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    50. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.
    51. Timo Teräsvirta & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 2001. "Non-linear error correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 277-288.
    52. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    53. Jain, Parul & Moon, Choon-Geol, 1994. "Sectoral Money Demand: A Co-integration Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 196-202, February.
    54. Mr. Zenon Kontolemis, 2002. "Money Demand in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand (Today)?," IMF Working Papers 2002/185, International Monetary Fund.
    55. von Landesberger, Julian, 2007. "Sectoral money demand models for the euro area based on a common set of determinants," Working Paper Series 741, European Central Bank.
    56. Stern Liliana V & Stern Michael L., 2008. "Expected Equity Returns and the Demand for Money," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee-Chea Hiew & Chin-Hong Puah & Mohammad Affendy Arip & Mei-Teing Chong, 2019. "Role of Advertising Expenditure as an Influential Non-traditional Regressor in Russia¡¯s Money Demand Specification," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(6), pages 232-240, October.
    2. Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Forecasting growth of U.S. aggregate and household-sector M2 after 2000 using economic uncertainty measures," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201702, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    3. Muellbauer, John & Geiger, Felix & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.
    4. Franz Seitz & Julian von Landesberger, 2012. "Household Money Demand: The Euro Area Case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(III), pages 409-438, September.
    5. Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2015. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201504, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, revised Jan 2018.
    6. Tarassow, Artur, 2019. "Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 443-457.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franz Seitz & Julian von Landesberger, 2012. "Household Money Demand: The Euro Area Case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(III), pages 409-438, September.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    3. Ralph Setzer & Guntram Wolff, 2013. "Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 297-315, June.
    4. de Bondt, Gabe, 2009. "Euro area money demand: empirical evidence on the role of equity and labour markets," Working Paper Series 1086, European Central Bank.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    7. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Setzer, Ralph & van den Noord, Paul & Wolff, Guntram B., 2011. "Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: The role of housing," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 764-780.
    10. John Ashworth & David Barlow & Lynne Evans, 2014. "Sectoral Money Demand Behaviour and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in the UK," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(6), pages 732-750, December.
    11. Beyer, Andreas, 2009. "A Stable Model for Euro Area Money Demand: Revisiting the Role of Wealth," Working Paper Series 1111, European Central Bank.
    12. Jung, Alexander & Carcel Villanova, Hector, 2020. "The empirical properties of euro area M3, 1980-2017," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 37-49.
    13. Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2015. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201504, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, revised Jan 2018.
    14. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2009. "Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 51-63.
    15. Gabe J. De Bondt, 2010. "New Evidence On The Motives For Holding Euro Area Money," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(3), pages 259-278, June.
    16. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2016. "On the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique: the case of euro area money demand," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 61-82, February.
    17. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "A portfolio demand approach for broad money in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1929, European Central Bank.
    18. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "M3 money demand and excess liquidity in the euro area," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 459-472, September.
    19. Clemens Kool & Erik de Regt & Tom van Veen, 2013. "Money Overhang, Credit Overhang and Financial Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 4476, CESifo.
    20. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    21. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegrated VARs; households; money demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.