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Asymmetric dynamics of insurance premium: the impacts of output and economic policy uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Amine Lahiani

    (Ton Duc Thang University
    Ton Duc Thang University)

  • Chi-Chuan Lee

    (Beijing Normal University Zhuhai)

  • Chien-Chiang Lee

    (National Sun Yat-sen University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the asymmetric and nonlinear transmission of real output and economic policy uncertainty to insurance premiums for the US economy over the annual period of 1980–2014. Using the most up-to-date nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags framework, we simultaneously examine short- and long-run asymmetric responses of insurance premiums through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of changes in the explanatory variables. Our empirical results reveal that real output and economic policy uncertainties both affect insurance premiums in an asymmetric and nonlinear manner, but the transmission mechanism is not the same. As to the impact of real output, we find that an increase in real output leads to enhancing the insurance premiums, while a decrease in output has a greater impact causing insurance premiums to move down. For the impact of economic policy uncertainty, the results also suggest that total and non-life insurance premiums increase with rising uncertainty, while life insurance premiums decrease with rising uncertainty. These results have significant implications for insurance-related econometric analysis, investment decisions, forecasting, and policy-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Amine Lahiani & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric dynamics of insurance premium: the impacts of output and economic policy uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1959-1978, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:57:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1539-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1539-z
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    Cited by:

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    3. Rudra P. Pradhan & Sahar Bahmani & Rebecca Abraham & John H. Hall, 2023. "Insurance Market and Economic Growth in an Information-Driven Economy: Evidence from a Panel of High- and Middle-Income Countries?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(3), pages 587-620, September.
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    5. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & James Temitope Dada & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Modelling asymmetric structure in the finance-poverty nexus: empirical insights from an emerging market economy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 453-487, February.
    6. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    7. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Wei Lin & Chi-Chuan Lee, 0. "The impact of peer effects and economic policy-related uncertainty on U.S. life insurers' investment decisions," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 0, pages 1-31.
    8. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Wei Lin & Chi-Chuan Lee, 2021. "The impact of peer effects and economic policy-related uncertainty on U.S. life insurers' investment decisions," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(1), pages 22-52, January.
    9. Xiang, Feiyun & Chang, Tsangyao & Jiang, Shi-jie, 2023. "Economic and climate policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and life insurance premiums in China: A quantile ARDL approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Nurudeen Abu & Tayo P. Ogundunmade, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in G7 countries: evidence of long-range dependence and cointegration," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 541-556, May.
    12. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2020. "Insurance activity, real output, and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 207-215.
    13. Martin Hodula & Jan Janků & Martin Časta & Adam Kučera, 2023. "On the macrofinancial determinants of life and non-life insurance premiums," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(4), pages 760-798, October.
    14. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Udomsak Wongchoti & Su Dinh Thanh, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for insurance development? Evidence from 16 OECD countries," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(4), pages 614-648, October.
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2020. "Insurance and economic policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Hemrit, Wael & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi, 2021. "Insurance and geopolitical risk: Fresh empirical evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 320-334.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Insurance premiums; Real output; Economic policy uncertainty; NARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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