IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-04390026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Urbanization Cause Crime? Evidence from Rural-Urban Migration in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Nelly Exbrayat

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Victor Stephane

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We study the impact of urbanization driven by internal migration on crime in South Africa. We create a new dataset that combines yearly data on crime and urban population density at the municipality level from 2011 to 2018. We exploit exogenous variations in rural-urban migration induced by climate shocks at origin for identification. We show that higher urban population density leads to a reduction in pecuniary crime rate but has no effect on non-pecuniary crime rate. We highlight two mechanisms explaining this negative effect: a change in population composition and a social network effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelly Exbrayat & Victor Stephane, 2024. "Does Urbanization Cause Crime? Evidence from Rural-Urban Migration in South Africa," Working Papers halshs-04390026, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04390026
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04390026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04390026/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frédéric Docquier & Riccardo Turati & Jérôme Valette & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2020. "Birthplace diversity and economic growth: evidence from the US states in the Post-World War II period [Cultural diversity and economic growth: evidence from the US during the age of mass migration]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 321-354.
    2. Eva-Maria Egger, 2022. "Internal Migration and Crime in Brazil," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(1), pages 223-259.
    3. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani, 2016. "The Effect of Local Area Crime on Mental Health," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(593), pages 978-1017, June.
    4. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Démurger, Sylvie & Li, Shi & Wang, Jianguo, 2020. "Unequal migration and urbanisation gains in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Alberto Alesina & Johann Harnoss & Hillel Rapoport, 2016. "Birthplace diversity and economic prosperity," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 101-138, June.
    6. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 181-213.
    7. Milo Bianchi & Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Pinotti, 2012. "Do Immigrants Cause Crime?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1318-1347, December.
    8. Alloush, Mo & Bloem, Jeffrey R., 2022. "Neighborhood violence, poverty, and psychological well-being," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Clement Imbert & Marlon Seror & Yifan Zhang & Yanos Zylberberg, 2022. "Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(6), pages 1885-1914, June.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2011. "Segregation and the Quality of Government in a Cross Section of Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1872-1911, August.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5382 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bryan A. Stuart & Evan J. Taylor, 2021. "The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 18-33, March.
    13. Frédéric Docquier & Riccardo Turati & Jérôme Valette & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2016. "Multiculturalism and Growth: Skill-Specific Evidence from the Post-World War II Period," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    14. Laura Jaitman & Stephen Machin, 2013. "Crime and immigration: new evidence from England and Wales," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, December.
    15. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2019. "The economic effects of density: A synthesis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 93-107.
    16. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce I. Sacerdote & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2003. "The Social Multiplier," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 345-353, 04/05.
    17. Gilles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2020. "The Economics of Urban Density," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    18. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Rodrigo R. Soares & Gabriel Ulyssea, 2018. "Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 158-195, October.
    19. David Roodman & James G. MacKinnon & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Matthew D. Webb, 2019. "Fast and wild: Bootstrap inference in Stata using boottest," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(1), pages 4-60, March.
    20. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    21. Heilmann, Kilian & Kahn, Matthew E. & Tang, Cheng Keat, 2021. "The urban crime and heat gradient in high and low poverty areas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    22. Henderson, J. Vernon & Nigmatulina, Dzhamilya & Kriticos, Sebastian, 2021. "Measuring urban economic density," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    23. Hellerstein, Judith K. & Kutzbach, Mark J. & Neumark, David, 2014. "Do labor market networks have an important spatial dimension?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 39-58.
    24. Henry S. Farber, 2015. "Why you Can’t Find a Taxi in the Rain and Other Labor Supply Lessons from Cab Drivers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(4), pages 1975-2026.
    25. Mariani, Fabio & Mercier, Marion, 2021. "Immigration and crime: The role of self-selection and institutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 538-564.
    26. Anna Piil Damm & Christian Dustmann, 2014. "Does Growing Up in a High Crime Neighborhood Affect Youth Criminal Behavior?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1806-1832, June.
    27. Janet Currie & Michael Mueller-Smith & Maya Rossin-Slater, 2022. "Violence While in Utero: The Impact of Assaults during Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 525-540, May.
    28. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    29. Antoni Calvó-Armengol & Yves Zenou, 2004. "Social Networks And Crime Decisions: The Role Of Social Structure In Facilitating Delinquent Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(3), pages 939-958, August.
    30. Caglar Ozden & Mauro Testaverde & Mathis Wagner, 2018. "How and Why Does Immigration Affect Crime? Evidence from Malaysia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 183-202.
    31. Brian Bell & Francesco Fasani & Stephen Machin, 2013. "Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1278-1290, October.
    32. Lacoe, Johanna & Bostic, Raphael W. & Acolin, Arthur, 2018. "Crime and private investment in urban neighborhoods," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 154-169.
    33. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    34. Domínguez, Magdalena & Montolio, Daniel, 2021. "Bolstering community ties as a mean of reducing crime," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 916-945.
    35. J. F. Hofmeyr, 1994. "The Rise in African Wages: 1975–1985," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 62(3), pages 126-135, September.
    36. David W. Johnston & Michael A. Shields & Agne Suziedelyte, 2018. "Victimisation, Well†being and Compensation: Using Panel Data to Estimate the Costs of Violent Crime," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1545-1569, June.
    37. Paolo Buonanno & Daniel Montolio & Paolo Vanin, 2009. "Does Social Capital Reduce Crime?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 145-170, February.
    38. Anna Bindler & Nadine Ketel, 2022. "Scaring or Scarring? Labor Market Effects of Criminal Victimization," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 939-970.
    39. David Card & Alexandre Mas & Jesse Rothstein, 2008. "Tipping and the Dynamics of Segregation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 177-218.
    40. Jedwab, Remi & Christiaensen, Luc & Gindelsky, Marina, 2017. "Demography, urbanization and development: Rural push, urban pull and…urban push?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 6-16.
    41. Natalija Novta, 2016. "Ethnic Diversity and the Spread of Civil War," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1074-1100.
    42. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 1999. "Why Is There More Crime in Cities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 225-258, December.
    43. Grossman, Daniel & Khalil, Umair, 2022. "Neighborhood crime and infant health," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    44. Demombynes, Gabriel & Ozler, Berk, 2005. "Crime and local inequality in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 265-292, April.
    45. Stuhler, Jan & Jaeger, David & Ruist, Joakim, 2018. "Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Ranson, Matthew, 2014. "Crime, weather, and climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 274-302.
    47. Gaviria, Alejandro & Pages, Carmen, 2002. "Patterns of crime victimization in Latin American cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 181-203, February.
    48. Twinam, Tate, 2017. "Danger zone: Land use and the geography of neighborhood crime," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 104-119.
    49. Sekhri, Sheetal & Storeygard, Adam, 2014. "Dowry deaths: Response to weather variability in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 212-223.
    50. Melissa Dell & Benjamin Feigenberg & Kensuke Teshima, 2019. "The Violent Consequences of Trade-Induced Worker Displacement in Mexico," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 43-58, June.
    51. Thierry Verdier & Yves Zenou, 2004. "Racial Beliefs, Location, And The Causes Of Crime," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(3), pages 731-760, August.
    52. Gollin, Douglas & Kirchberger, Martina & Lagakos, David, 2021. "Do urban wage premia reflect lower amenities? Evidence from Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    53. Natalija Novta, 2016. "Ethnic Diversity And The Spread Of Civil War," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1074-1100, October.
    54. Brown, Ryan & Velásquez, Andrea, 2017. "The effect of violent crime on the human capital accumulation of young adults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-12.
    55. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2017. "Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 60-82.
    56. Fabio Mariani & Marion Mercier, 2021. "Immigration and crime: the role of self-selection and institutions," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03355464, HAL.
    57. Sharkey, Patrick & Torrats-Espinosa, Gerard, 2017. "The effect of violent crime on economic mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 22-33.
    58. Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Ethnic diversity and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 293-323, April.
    59. Aaron Chalfin, 2014. "What is the Contribution of Mexican Immigration to U.S. Crime Rates? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in Mexico," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 220-268.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Billy, Alexander & Packard, Michael, 2022. "Crime and the Mariel Boatlift," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Olivier Bargain & Victor Stephane & Jérôme Valette, 2022. "Another brick in the wall. Immigration and electoral preferences: Direct evidence from state ballots," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 1452-1477, November.
    3. Brunello, Giorgio & Lodigiani, Elisabetta & Rocco, Lorenzo, 2020. "Does low-skilled immigration increase profits? Evidence from Italian local labour markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Kırdar, Murat G. & López Cruz, Ivan & Türküm, Betül, 2022. "The effect of 3.6 million refugees on crime," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 568-582.
    5. Levai, Adam & Turati, Riccardo, 2024. "International Immigration and Labor Regulation," IZA Discussion Papers 16929, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Francesco Campo & Mariapia Mendola & Andrea Morrison & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2022. "Talents and Cultures: Immigrant Inventors and Ethnic Diversity in the Age of Mass Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1971-2012.
    7. Dehos, Fabian T., 2021. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Eva-Maria Egger, 2022. "Internal Migration and Crime in Brazil," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(1), pages 223-259.
    9. Nicolás Ajzenman & Patricio Domínguez & Raimundo Undurraga, 2021. "Immigration, crime, and crime (Mis)perceptions," Working Papers 53, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    10. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Elia & Massimiliano Ferraresi, 2023. "Immigration, Fear of Crime, and Public Spending on Security," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 235-280.
    11. Adam Levai & Riccardo Turati, 2021. "The Impact of Immigration on Workers’ Protection," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2021021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 07 Sep 2021.
    12. Kayaoglu, Aysegul, 2022. "Do refugees cause crime?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    13. Gianluca Orefice & Hillel Rapoport & Gianluca Santoni, 2021. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports? Networks, Knowledge, Diversity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9288, CESifo.
    14. Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2023. "Decomposing the impact of immigration on house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Francesco Campo & Mariapia Mendola & Andrea Morrison & Gianmarco Ottaviano, "undated". "Immigrant Inventors and Diversity in the Age of Mass Migration," Development Working Papers 464, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    16. Piopiunik, Marc & Ruhose, Jens, 2017. "Immigration, regional conditions, and crime: Evidence from an allocation policy in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 258-282.
    17. Dany Bahar & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati, 2019. "Does Birthplace Diversity Affect Economic Complexity? Cross-Country Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 7950, CESifo.
    18. Monica Langella & Alan Manning, 2019. "Diversity and Neighbourhood Satisfaction," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(624), pages 3219-3255.
    19. Huang, Yue & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2019. "Immigration and Crimes against Natives: The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12469, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Francesco Fasani, 2018. "Immigrant crime and legal status: evidence from repeated amnesty programs," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 887-914.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Migration; South Africa; Urbanization; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04390026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.