IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03458737.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labour force participation and job polarization : evidence from Europe during the great recession

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory Verdugo

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Guillaume Allegre

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Job polarization accelerated during the Great recession in Europe. Because of higher occupational segregation by gender and larger shocks to middling occupations that employ mostly male workers, employmentopportunities declined much more for men relative to women in Europe compared to the US. We find that the labour force participation and employment rates of women increased considerably in regions most affected by the destruction of men's jobs, particularly for married women with less than high-school education. For men, the decline in demand in middling occupations explains some of the recent decline in their participation. For both men and women, the Great recession mostly accelerated pre-existing trends. This suggests that a large share of the recent increases in women's participation in Europe is a response to job polarization

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Verdugo & Guillaume Allegre, 2017. "Labour force participation and job polarization : evidence from Europe during the great recession," Working Papers hal-03458737, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03458737
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458737
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458737/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    2. Stuhler, Jan & Jaeger, David & Ruist, Joakim, 2018. "Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 129-147, March.
    4. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    6. Verdugo, Gregory, 2016. "Real wage cyclicality in the Eurozone before and during the Great Recession: Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 46-69.
    7. Ashenfelter, Orley, 1980. "Unemployment as Disequilibrium in a Model of Aggregate Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 547-564, April.
    8. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2017. "The Gender Wage Gap: Extent, Trends, and Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 789-865, September.
    9. Gary Solon & Robert Barsky & Jonathan A. Parker, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25.
    10. Dolado, J. J. & Felgueroso, F. & Jimeno, J. F., 2001. "Female employment and occupational changes in the 1990s: How is the EU performing relative to the US?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 875-889, May.
    11. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    12. Sanderson, Eleanor & Windmeijer, Frank, 2016. "A weak instrument F-test in linear IV models with multiple endogenous variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(2), pages 212-221.
    13. Jaimovich, Nir & Cortes, Matias & Siu, Henry, 2018. "The “End of Men†and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 13323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Gilles Duranton & Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Richard Sandall, 2009. "Family Types and the Persistence of Regional Disparities in Europe," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 85(1), pages 23-47, January.
    15. Jorge De La Roca & Diego Puga, 2017. "Learning by Working in Big Cities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(1), pages 106-142.
    16. Brad Hershbein & Lisa B. Kahn, 2018. "Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1737-1772, July.
    17. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2015. "Labor-Market Polarization over the Business Cycle," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 371-413.
    18. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    19. Verdugo, Gregory, 2014. "The great compression of the French wage structure, 1969–2008," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 131-144.
    20. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    21. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    22. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2017. "Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 168-173, May.
    23. Marianne Bertrand & Emir Kamenica & Jessica Pan, 2015. "Gender Identity and Relative Income within Households," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 571-614.
    24. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2014. "Gender gaps across countries and skills: Demand, supply and the industry structure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 842-859, October.
    25. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, December.
    26. Jacob Mincer, 1962. "Labor Force Participation of Married Women: A Study of Labor Supply," NBER Chapters, in: Aspects of Labor Economics, pages 63-105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Sara Rica & Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 2017. "Gender Differentials in Unemployment Ins and Outs during the Great Recession in Spain," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 67-99, March.
    28. repec:adr:anecst:y:2003:i:71-72:p:11 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Johannes Wieland, 2020. "Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2245-2287.
    30. Paul J. Devereux, 2004. "Changes in Relative Wages and Family Labor Supply," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(3).
    31. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    32. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    33. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    34. De la Roca, Jorge, 2017. "Selection in initial and return migration: Evidence from moves across Spanish cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 33-53.
    35. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    36. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    37. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martin Uribe, 2013. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Case for Temporary Inflation in the Eurozone," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 193-212, Summer.
    38. James Harrigan & Ariell Reshef & Farid Toubal, 2016. "The March of the Techies: Technology, Trade, and Job Polarization in France, 1994-2007," Working Papers 2016-15, CEPII research center.
    39. Juan J. Dolado & Florentino Felgueroso & Juan F. Jimeno, 2003. "Where do Women Work Analysing Patterns in Occupational Segregation by Gender?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 71-72, pages 267-292.
    40. Paul J. Devereux & Robert A. Hart, 2006. "Real Wage Cyclicality of Job Stayers, Within-Company Job Movers, and Between-Company Job Movers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 60(1), pages 105-119, October.
    41. Chinhui Juhn, 1992. "Decline of Male Labor Market Participation: The Role of Declining Market Opportunities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 79-121.
    42. Benati, Luca, 2001. "Some empirical evidence on the 'discouraged worker' effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 387-395, March.
    43. Nir Jaimovich & Henry Siu & Guido Matias Cortes, 2017. "The End of Men and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market," 2017 Meeting Papers 809, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    44. Heckman, James J & Willis, Robert J, 1977. "A Beta-logistic Model for the Analysis of Sequential Labor Force Participation by Married Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 27-58, February.
    45. Jonah B. Gelbach, 2004. "Migration, the Life Cycle, and State Benefits: How Low Is the Bottom?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 1091-1130, October.
    46. Robert Gibbons & Lawrence F. Katz & Thomas Lemieux & Daniel Parent, 2005. "Comparative Advantage, Learning, and Sectoral Wage Determination," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(4), pages 681-724, October.
    47. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2018. "Housing Booms and Busts, Labor Market Opportunities, and College Attendance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(10), pages 2947-2994, October.
    48. Robert Hall & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2016. "Changes in labor participation and household income," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    49. Chang‐Tai Hsieh & Erik Hurst & Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2019. "The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(5), pages 1439-1474, September.
    50. Hélène PÉRIVIER, 2018. "Recession, austerity and gender: A comparison of eight European labour markets," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(1), pages 1-37, March.
    51. Raquel Carrasco & Juan F. Jimeno & A. Carolina Ortega, 2015. "Returns to Skills and the Distribution of Wages: Spain 1995–2010," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(4), pages 542-565, August.
    52. Chinhui Juhn & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Is there still an added-worker effect?," Staff Reports 310, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    53. A. D. Roy, 1951. "Some Thoughts On The Distribution Of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 135-146.
    54. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 2000. "Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 20-54, January.
    55. Shin, Donggyun, 2000. "Gender and Industry Differences in Employment Cyclicality: Evidence Over the Postwar Period," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 641-650, October.
    56. James J. Heckman & Thomas E. Macurdy, 1980. "A Life Cycle Model of Female Labour Supply," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 47-74.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mindaugas Butkus & Laura Dargenyte-Kacilevièiene & Kristina Matuzevièiute & Janina Šeputiene & Dovile Rupliene, 2023. "Age- and Gender-specific Output-employment Relationship across Economic Sectors," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 71(1), pages 3-22, January.
    2. Guisinger, Amy Y., 2020. "Gender differences in the volatility of work hours and labor demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Maarek, Paul & Moiteaux, Elliot, 2021. "Polarization, employment and the minimum wage: Evidence from European local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Clément Bosquet & Paul Maarek & Elliot Moiteaux, 2021. "Routine-biased technological change and wages by education level: Occupational downgrading and displacement effects," Working Papers hal-03270715, HAL.
    5. García-Peñalosa, Cecilia & Petit, Fabien & van Ypersele, Tanguy, 2023. "Can workers still climb the social ladder as middling jobs become scarce? Evidence from two British cohorts," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Bilal Nabeel Falah & Marcelo Bérgolo & Arwa Abu Hashhash & Mohammad Hattawy & Iman Saadeh, 2019. "The Effect of Labor-Demand Shocks on Women’s Participation in the Labor Force: Evidence from Palestine," Working Papers PMMA 2019-08, PEP-PMMA.
    7. Martinoty, Laurine, 2022. "Partner’s income shock and female labor supply. Evidence from the repeal of Argentina’s convertibility law," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4igrl22i129kl9t3bjsriribbs is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4igrl22i129kl9t3bjsriribbs is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    4. Masao Fukui & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2023. "Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 269-313, January.
    5. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04," Working Papers 53616, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Bhalotra, Sonia & Fernandez Sierra, Manuel, 2018. "The distribution of the gender wage gap," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-10, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Pereira, João & Ramos, Raul & Martins, Pedro S., 2024. "Wage cyclicality and labour market institutions," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1469, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Jaimovich, Nir & Saporta-Eksten, Itay & Siu, Henry & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2021. "The macroeconomics of automation: Data, theory, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Javier Ortega & Gregory Verdugo, 2022. "Who stays and who leaves? Immigration and the selection of natives across locations," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 221-260.
    10. Pahontu, Raluca L., 2022. "Divisive jobs: three facets of risk, precarity, and redistribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111593, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Yu, Chan, 2023. "The role of immigrants in the United States labor market and Chinese import competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Ferreira, Fernando, 2015. "Causal Inference in Urban and Regional Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 3-68, Elsevier.
    13. Firsin, Oleg, 2023. "How does offshoring affect the wage impact of immigration?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Lee, Eunhee, 2020. "Trade, inequality, and the endogenous sorting ofheterogeneous workers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Keller, Wolfgang & Utar, Hale, 2023. "International trade and job polarization: Evidence at the worker level," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-739.
    17. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    18. Bastian, Jacob E. & Black, Dan A., 2024. "Relaxing financial constraints with tax credits and migrating out of rural and distressed America," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    19. Petrongolo, Barbara & Ronchi, Maddalena, 2020. "Gender gaps and the structure of local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Verdugo, Gregory, 2016. "Real wage cyclicality in the Eurozone before and during the Great Recession: Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 46-69.
    21. Clément Malgouyres, 2017. "The Impact Of Chinese Import Competition On The Local Structure Of Employment And Wages: Evidence From France," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 411-441, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour force participation; Job polarization; Women; Europe; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03458737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.