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Can Workers Still Climb the Social Ladder as Middling Jobs Become Scarce? Evidence from Two British Cohorts

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  • Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa
  • Fabien Petit
  • Tanguy van Ypersele

Abstract

The increase in employment polarization observed in several high-income economies has coincided with a reduction in inter-generational mobility. This paper argues that the disappearance of middling jobs can drive changes in mobility, notably by removing a stepping stone towards high-paying occupations for those from less well-off family backgrounds. Using data from two British cohorts who entered the labour market at two points in time with very different degrees of employment polarization, we examine how parental income affects both entry occupations and occupational upgrading over careers. We find that transitions across occupations are key to mobility and that the impact of parental income has grown over time. At regional level, using a shift-share IV-strategy, we show that the impact of parental income has increased the most in regions experiencing the greatest increase in polarisation. This indicates that the disappearance of middling jobs played a role in the observed decline in mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa & Fabien Petit & Tanguy van Ypersele, 2023. "Can Workers Still Climb the Social Ladder as Middling Jobs Become Scarce? Evidence from Two British Cohorts," CESifo Working Paper Series 10337, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10337
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    Cited by:

    1. Roupakias, Stelios, 2023. "Employment polarization: evidence from regions in Greece," MPRA Paper 118696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Perelman, Sergio & Pestieau, Pierre & Racionero, Maria, 2023. "Social mobility, education and populism," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2023026, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    3. Fabien Petit, 2023. "AI and Employment Opportunities: Fostering Skill Development for a Prosperous Future," CEPEO Briefing Note Series 27, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Dec 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    British cohort; inter-generational mobility; job polarization; parental income; occupational transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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