IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v17y2003i4p167-190.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald Lee

Abstract

The global demographic transition began around 1800 in Europe with declining mortality followed by declining fertility, trends which spread around the world and continue in this century. At the aggregate level, population size greatly increased, growth accelerated and declined with many countries now shrinking, and age distributions inevitably moved from young to old. Population aging has not yet run its course, Its effects exacerbated by declining retirement ages, straining pensions systems and prompting their reform. These aggregate demographic trends reflect profound changes in risks and behavior for individuals and families, and in the shape of the economic life cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:17:y:2003:i:4:p:167-190
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/089533003772034943
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/089533003772034943
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc Nerlove, 1974. "Household and Economy: Toward a New Theory of Population and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Marriage, Family, Human Capital, and Fertility, pages 200-221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, June.
    4. Schultz, T Paul, 1994. "Human Capital, Family Planning, and Their Effects on Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 255-260, May.
    5. Birdsall, Nancy & Kelley, Allen C. & Sinding, Steven (ed.), 2003. "Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199261864.
    6. Dora Costa, 2002. "Changing chronic disease rates and longterm declines in functional limitation among older men," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(1), pages 119-137, February.
    7. Fred C. Pampel, 2002. "Cigarette Use and the Narrowing Sex Differential in Mortality," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 77-104, March.
    8. Paul Gertler & John Molyneaux, 1994. "How economic development and family planning programs combined to reduce indonesian fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(1), pages 33-63, February.
    9. Robert J. Willis, 1974. "Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 25-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ryan D. Edwards & Ronald D. Lee, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    11. Fogel, Robert W, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 369-395, June.
    12. Ronald Lee, 1987. "Population dynamics of humans and other animals," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(4), pages 443-465, November.
    13. Paul Gertler & Jack Molyneaux, 1994. "Erratum to: How Economic Development and Family Planning Programs Combined to Reduce Indonesian Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(2), pages 1-1, May.
    14. Richard A. Easterlin, 1980. "Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east80-1, June.
    15. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    16. Samuel H. Preston, 1980. "Causes and Consequences of Mortality Declines in Less Developed Countries during the Twentieth Century," NBER Chapters, in: Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries, pages 289-360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1, June.
    18. Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schultz, T. Paul, 2010. "Population and Health Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4785-4881, Elsevier.
    2. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    3. Grant Miller, 2005. "Contraception as Development? New Evidence from Family Planning in Colombia," CID Working Papers 9, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. Grant Miller, 2005. "Contraception as Development? New Evidence from Family Planning in Colombia," NBER Working Papers 11704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
    6. Ravi Prakash & Abhishek Singh, 2014. "Who Marries Whom? Changing Mate Selection Preferences in Urban India and Emerging Implications on Social Institutions," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(2), pages 205-227, April.
    7. Vrachimis Konstantinos & Zachariadis Marios, 2013. "A contribution to the empirics of welfare growth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 213-244, April.
    8. Abdullah, Muhammad & Chani, Muhammad Irfan & Ali, Amjad & Shoukat, Ayza, 2013. "Co-Integration Between Fertility and Human Development Indicators: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 49134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    10. Francesco Ricci & Marios Zachariadis, 2013. "Education Externalities on Longevity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 404-440, July.
    11. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    12. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    13. T. Paul Schultz, 2005. "Fertility and Income," Working Papers 925, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    14. Papageorgiou, Chris & Savvides, Andreas & Zachariadis, Marios, 2007. "International medical technology diffusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 409-427, July.
    15. Schultz, T. Paul, 2008. "Population Policies, Fertility, Women's Human Capital, and Child Quality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 52, pages 3249-3303, Elsevier.
    16. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    17. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 9390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Uma Radhakrishnan, 2010. "A Dynamic Structural Model of Contraceptive Use and Employment Sector Choice for Women in Indonesia," Working Papers 10-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    19. Ali Hashemi & Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, 2013. "From Health Service Delivery to Family Planning: The Changing Impact of Health Clinics on Fertility in Rural Iran," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 281-309.
    20. Deborah Degraff & Richard Bilsborrow & David Guilkey, 1997. "Community-level determinants of contraceptive use in the Philippines: A structural analysis," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(3), pages 385-398, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:17:y:2003:i:4:p:167-190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.