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The futures of the service economy in Europe: a foresight analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Faïz Gallouj

    (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Matthias Weber

    (AIT - Austrian Institute of Technology [Vienna])

  • Metka Stare

    (University of Ljubljana)

  • Luis Rubalcaba

    (UAH - Universidad de Alcalá - University of Alcalá)

Abstract

The paper presents a signalling exercise with a view to trace emerging dynamics in the development of the services economy in Europe. These dynamics have a direct influence and will trigger off service innovation. Firstly, the drivers of the service economy are presented, many of them fostering service innovation as a way to face new societal and business challenges. Secondly, emerging developments are discussed to identify the most promising service innovation dynamics. Finally, foresight scenarios demonstrate possible future trends of the new service economy. These scenarios are based on a methodology developed and applied in the context of an EC-funded project on Sectoral Innovation Systems. This exercise is performed for the overall set of services activities although a particular focus is given on activities such as knowledge intensive business services and distributive trade services. Results indicate that emerging developments are those related to the reconciliation between industrialisation and customisation associated with ICT, ageing population, sustainable development and service regression and extension dynamics. The cases of knowledge intensive services and distributive trades have shown how different drivers and emerging developments are interrelated and establish different scenarios for future development.

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  • Faïz Gallouj & Matthias Weber & Metka Stare & Luis Rubalcaba, 2015. "The futures of the service economy in Europe: a foresight analysis," Post-Print halshs-01133897, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01133897
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01133897
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mota, Joao & Santos, Jose Novais, 2021. "Dynamic roles of suppliers in the specification of business services," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    2. Paula Rodríguez-Modroño & Purificación López-Igual, 2021. "Job Quality and Work—Life Balance of Teleworkers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Machado Léo, Ricardo & Tello‐Gamarra, Jorge, 2016. "Inovac¸ão em servic¸os: estado da arte e perspectivas futuras [Innovation in services: state of the art and future perspectives]," MPRA Paper 82195, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Mar 2017.
    4. Elisenda Jové‐Llopis & Agustí Segarra‐Blasco, 2020. "Why does eco‐innovation differ in service firms? Some insights from Spain," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 918-938, March.
    5. Villani, Davide, 2021. "Revisiting the external financial dependence index in light of the rise of corporate net lending: What do we really measure?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 361-376.
    6. Jacek Brożyna & Wadim Strielkowski & Alena Fomina & Natalya Nikitina, 2020. "Renewable Energy and EU 2020 Target for Energy Efficiency in the Czech Republic and Slovakia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Benoît Desmarchelier & Faridah Djellal & Faïz Gallouj, 2021. "Collaborating for social innovation in public services: inside the black box of public service innovation networks for social innovation (PSINSIs)," Post-Print halshs-03177910, HAL.
    8. Cristina Sales Baptista & João Mota & Jose Novais Santos, 2022. "Buyer–supplier interactions in business services: variety in relational interfaces," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 16(3), pages 621-643, September.
    9. Luis Rubalcaba, 2022. "Understanding Innovation in Education: A Service Co-Production Perspective," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Ben Zhang & Lei Ma & Zheng Liu & Ping Wang, 2019. "Sustainable Technology Innovation Path Recognition: An Evaluation of Patent Risk of International Trade," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Kirsi Hyttinen & Sampsa Ruutu & Mika Nieminen & Faiz Gallouj & Marja Toivonen, 2014. "A system dynamic and multi-criteria evaluation of innovations in environmental services," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(3), pages 29-52.
    12. Ovuakporie, Oghogho Destina & Pillai, Kishore Gopalakrishna & Wang, Chengang & Wei, Yingqi, 2021. "Differential moderating effects of strategic and operational reconfiguration on the relationship between open innovation practices and innovation performance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1).
    13. Ehrenhard, Michel & Wijnhoven, Fons & van den Broek, Tijs & Zinck Stagno, Marc, 2017. "Unlocking how start-ups create business value with mobile applications: Development of an App-enabled Business Innovation Cycle," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 26-36.
    14. Willems, Kim & Smolders, Annelien & Brengman, Malaika & Luyten, Kris & Schöning, Johannes, 2017. "The path-to-purchase is paved with digital opportunities: An inventory of shopper-oriented retail technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 228-242.
    15. Homayounfard, Amir & Zaefarian, Ghasem, 2022. "Key challenges and opportunities of service innovation processes in technology supplier-service provider partnerships," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1284-1302.
    16. Seungil Yum, 2019. "The interaction between knowledge-intensive business services and urban economy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 63(1), pages 53-83, August.
    17. Flick, Catherine & Zamani, Efpraxia D. & Stahl, Bernd Carsten & Brem, Alexander, 2020. "The future of ICT for health and ageing: Unveiling ethical and social issues through horizon scanning foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. Purificación López-Igual & Paula Rodríguez-Modroño, 2020. "Who is Teleworking and Where from? Exploring the Main Determinants of Telework in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-15, October.
    19. Paweł P. Włodarczyk & Barbara Włodarczyk, 2018. "Microbial Fuel Cell with Ni–Co Cathode Powered with Yeast Wastewater," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-9, November.
    20. Jadranka Švarc & Marina Dabić, 2017. "Evolution of the Knowledge Economy: a Historical Perspective with an Application to the Case of Europe," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(1), pages 159-176, March.
    21. Santos-Vijande, María Leticia & López-Sánchez, Jose Ángel & Pascual-Fernández, Primitiva & Rudd, John M., 2021. "Service innovation management in a modern economy: Insights on the interplay between firms’ innovative culture and project-level success factors," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    22. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.
    23. Jean Pierre Seclen-Luna & Pablo Moya-Fernández & Ángeles Pereira, 2021. "Exploring the Effects of Innovation Strategies and Size on Manufacturing Firms’ Productivity and Environmental Impact," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-18, March.
    24. Yuliani Suseno & Chris Rowley, 2018. "Social capital in service-oriented firms: future directions," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 261-271, March.
    25. Anatolijs Prohorovs & Marina Solesvik, 2018. "Services Sector Export in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-19, December.

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    Keywords

    Wholesale and Retail Trade; Europe; Knowledge-Intensive Services; Foresight; Future; Services;
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