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Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach

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  • Saritas, Ozcan
  • Nugroho, Yanuar

Abstract

In parallel with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value systems (STEEPV), there is a need for a systemic approach in Foresight. Recognizing this need, the paper begins with the introduction of the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) is introduced briefly as a conceptual framework to understand and appreciate the complexity of systems and interdependencies and interrelationships between their elements. Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, which is about how systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood, modelled and intervened for a successful change programme. A methodological approach is proposed with the use of network analysis to show an application of systemic thinking in Foresight through the visualisation of interrelationships and interdependencies between trends, issues and actors, and their interpretation to explain the evolution of systems. Network analysis is a powerful approach as it is able to analyse both the whole system of relations and parts of the system at the same time and hence it reveals the otherwise hidden structural properties of the systems. Our earlier work has attempted to incorporate network analysis in Foresight, which helped to reveal structural linkages of trends and identify emerging important trends in the future. Following from this work, in this paper we combine systemic Foresight, network analysis and scenario methods to propose an ‘Evolutionary Scenario Approach,’ which explains the ways in which the future may unfold based on the mapping of the gradual change and the dynamics of aspects or variables that characterise a series of circumstances in a period of time. Thus, not only are evolutionary scenarios capable of giving a snapshot of a particular future, but also explaining the emerging transformation pathways of events and situations from the present into the future as systemic narratives.

Suggested Citation

  • Saritas, Ozcan & Nugroho, Yanuar, 2012. "Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 509-529.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:3:p:509-529
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.09.005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anne Marchais-Roubelat & Fabrice Roubelat, 2019. "History, time and futures studies. Tensions from geostrategy anticipatory practices," Post-Print hal-02557600, HAL.
    2. Kishita, Yusuke & Mizuno, Yuji & Fukushige, Shinichi & Umeda, Yasushi, 2020. "Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Franceschini, Simone & Borup, Mads & Rosales-Carreón, Jesús, 2018. "Future indoor light and associated energy consumption based on professionals' visions: A practice- and network-oriented analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1-11.
    4. Yawson, Robert M. & Greiman, Bradley C., 2017. "Strategic flexibility analysis of agrifood nanotechnology skill needs identification," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 184-194.
    5. Gallouj, Faïz & Weber, K. Matthias & Stare, Metka & Rubalcaba, Luis, 2015. "The futures of the service economy in Europe: A foresight analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 80-96.
    6. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    7. Ana Luís & Kenisha Garnett & Simon J. T. Pollard & Fiona Lickorish & Simon Jude & Paul Leinster, 2021. "Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 523-540, December.
    8. Rosiane Serrano & Luis Henrique Rodrigues & Daniel Pacheco Lacerda & Priscila Bonalume Paraboni, 2018. "Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning: Application in the Clothing Sector," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 509-537, October.
    9. Bootz, Jean-Philippe & Michel, Sophie & Pallud, Jessie & Monti, Régine, 2022. "Possible changes of Industry 4.0 in 2030 in the face of uberization: Results of a participatory and systemic foresight study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    10. Fabricio Casarejos, 2020. "Casting Long-Term and Regenerative Perspectives on Global Sustainability through Systems and Resilience Thinking," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Marinković, Milan & Al-Tabbaa, Omar & Khan, Zaheer & Wu, Jie, 2022. "Corporate foresight: A systematic literature review and future research trajectories," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 289-311.
    12. Hurmekoski, Elias & Lovrić, Marko & Lovrić, Nataša & Hetemäki, Lauri & Winkel, Georg, 2019. "Frontiers of the forest-based bioeconomy – A European Delphi study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 86-99.
    13. Sarkki, Simo & Pihlajamäki, Mia, 2019. "Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 200-209.
    14. Buscema, Massimo & Ferilli, Guido & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2017. "What kind of ‘world order’? An artificial neural networks approach to intensive data mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 46-56.
    15. Maria Karaulova & Maria Nedeva & Duncan A. Thomas, 2020. "Mapping research fields using co-nomination: the case of hyper-authorship heavy flavour physics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(3), pages 2229-2249, September.
    16. Flipse, Steven M. & van der Sanden, Maarten C.A. & Osseweijer, Patricia, 2014. "Improving industrial R&D practices with social and ethical aspects: Aligning key performance indicators with social and ethical aspects in food technology R&D," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 185-197.

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