IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-00745303.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Decision-making under uncertainty in drug development

Author

Listed:
  • Saïna Hassanzadeh

    (CGI - Centre Génie Industriel - IMT Mines Albi - IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], Fondation pour une Culture de Sécurité Industrielle - Institut pour une Culture de Sécurité Industrielle)

  • Didier Gourc

    (CGI - Centre Génie Industriel - IMT Mines Albi - IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris])

  • François Marmier

    (CGI - Centre Génie Industriel - IMT Mines Albi - IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris])

  • Sophie Bougaret

    (MANAGEOS - MANAGEOS)

Abstract

In pharmaceutical industry, decision-makers have to decide whether to continue drug development projects which are very expensive, risky and long. Such decisions are made collectively, under a high degree of uncertainty and in non-emergency situations. The major problem in this context is indecision. In order to improve the decision-making process in practice, we need to characterize and analyze situations of decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new definition of uncertainty that takes human factors in its characterization into account. Then, we present a typology of uncertainty generators that helps us recognize and explore its causal factors. Additionally, we represent decision-making process in pharmaceutical R\&D illustrating the role of different actors and their interactions in decision-making. This should help decision-makers adopt proactive practices instead of reactive ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Saïna Hassanzadeh & Didier Gourc & François Marmier & Sophie Bougaret, 2010. "Decision-making under uncertainty in drug development," Post-Print hal-00745303, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00745303
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00745303v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-00745303v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tsoukias, Alexis, 2008. "From decision theory to decision aiding methodology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 138-161, May.
    2. Lipshitz, Raanan & Strauss, Orna, 1997. "Coping with Uncertainty: A Naturalistic Decision-Making Analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 149-163, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saïna Hassanzadeh & Didier Gourc & François Marmier & Sophie Bougaret, 2011. "Decision-making in R&D projects, a framework based on fuzzy logic," Post-Print hal-00745290, HAL.
    2. Saïna Hassanzadeh & François Marmier & Didier Gourc & Sophie Bougaret, 2011. "Integration of human factors in project uncertainty management, a decision support system based on fuzzy logic," Post-Print hal-00745283, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Venkatesh, Viswanath & Maruping, Likoebe M. & Brown, Susan A., 2006. "Role of time in self-prediction of behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 160-176, July.
    2. Yongqiang Gao & Ya Lisa Lin & Haibin Yang, 2017. "What’s the value in it? Corporate giving under uncertainty," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 215-240, March.
    3. Noémie Berlin & Jan Dul & Marco Gazel & Louis Lévy-Garboua & Todd Lubart, 2023. "Creative Cognition as a Bandit Problem," CIRANO Working Papers 2023s-11, CIRANO.
    4. Ralf Meinhardt & Sebastian Junge & Martin Weiss, 2018. "The organizational environment with its measures, antecedents, and consequences: a review and research agenda," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 195-235, April.
    5. Chabane Mazri & Bruno Debray & Myriam Merad & Alexis Tsoukiàs, 2012. "Participative design of participation structures: a general approach and some risk management case studies," Working Papers hal-00874383, HAL.
    6. Bryce, Cormac & Webb, Rob & Cheevers, Carly & Ring, P. & Clark, G., 2016. "Should the insurance industry be banking on risk escalation for solvency II?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 131-139.
    7. van Schie, Ron J.G. & Donkers, Bas & Dellaert, Benedict G.C., 2012. "Savings adequacy uncertainty: Driver or obstacle to increased pension contributions?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 882-896.
    8. Bao, Xing & Diabat, Ali & Zheng, Zhongliang, 2020. "An ambiguous manager's disruption decisions with insufficient data in recovery phase," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    9. Saïna Hassanzadeh & Didier Gourc & François Marmier & Sophie Bougaret, 2011. "Decision-making in R&D projects, a framework based on fuzzy logic," Post-Print hal-00745290, HAL.
    10. Van Horen, Femke & Pieters, Rik, 2013. "Preference reversal for copycat brands: Uncertainty makes imitation feel good," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 54-64.
    11. Jiang, Yi & Tornikoski, Erno T., 2019. "Perceived uncertainty and behavioral logic: Temporality and unanticipated consequences in the new venture creation process," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 23-40.
    12. Janse, Gerben, 2006. "Information search behaviour of European forest policy decision-makers," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(6), pages 579-592, August.
    13. Roberta Riverso & Carmela Altamura & Francesco La Barbera, 2023. "Consumer Intention to Buy Electric Cars: Integrating Uncertainty in the Theory of Planned Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-13, May.
    14. József Temesi, 2011. "Pairwise comparison matrices and the error-free property of the decision maker," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 19(2), pages 239-249, June.
    15. Timothy W. Simpson & Simon Miller & Elliott B. Tibor & Michael A. Yukish & Gary Stump & Hanumanthrao Kannan & Bryan Mesmer & Eliot H. Winer & Christina L. Bloebaum, 2017. "Adding Value to Trade Space Exploration When Designing Complex Engineered Systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 131-146, March.
    16. Schreyögg, Georg & Ostermann, Simone M., 2014. "Managing uncertainty in intensive care units: Exploring formal and informal coping practices in a university hospital," Discussion Papers 2014/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    17. van der Wal, Arianne J. & van Horen, Femke & Grinstein, Amir, 2018. "Temporal myopia in sustainable behavior under uncertainty," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 378-393.
    18. Winkler, Jens & Kuklinski, Christian Paul Jian-Wei & Moser, Roger, 2015. "Decision making in emerging markets: The Delphi approach's contribution to coping with uncertainty and equivocality," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1118-1126.
    19. Philipp Haessler, 2020. "Strategic Decisions between Short-Term Profit and Sustainability," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-31, September.
    20. Malcolm J. Beynon, 2006. "The Role of the DS/AHP in Identifying Inter-Group Alliances and Majority Rule Within Group Decision Making," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-42, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00745303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.