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Explaining Cross-Cohort Differences in Life Cycle Earnings

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College-educated workers entering the labor market in 1940 experienced a 4-fold increase in their labor earnings between the ages of 25 and 55; in contrast, the increase was 2.6-fold for those entering the market in 1980. For workers without a college education these figures are 3.6-fold and 1.5-fold, respectively. Why are earnings profiles flatter for recent cohorts? We build a parsimonious model of schooling and human capital accumulation on the job and calibrate it to earnings statistics of workers from the 1940 cohort. The model accounts for 99 percent of the flattening of earnings profiles for workers with a college education between the 1940 and the 1980 cohorts (52 percent for workers without a college education). The flattening in our model results from a single exogenous factor: the increasing price of skills. The higher skill price induces (i) higher college enrollment for recent cohorts and thus a change in the educational composition of workers and (ii) higher human capital at the start of work life for college-educated workers in the recent cohorts, which implies lower earnings growth over the life cycle.

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  • Yu-Chien Kong & B. Ravikumar & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2015. "Explaining Cross-Cohort Differences in Life Cycle Earnings," Working Papers 2015-35, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2015-035
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    Cited by:

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    3. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen, 2020. "The evolution of the US family income–schooling relationship and educational selectivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 841-859, November.
    4. Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2021. "The baby boomers and the productivity slowdown," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen, 2020. "Reconciling Changes in Wage Inequality With Changes in College Selectivity Using a Behavioral Model," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-36, CIRANO.
    6. Daniil Kashkarov, 2022. "RBTC and Human Capital: Accounting for Individual-Level Responses," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp721, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    7. B. Ravikumar & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2017. "Why Are Life-Cycle Earnings Profiles Getting Flatter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(3), pages 245-257.
    8. Hendricks, Lutz, 2016. "Accounting for changing returns to experience," CFS Working Paper Series 558, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. George-Levi Gayle & Prasanthi Ramakrishnan & Mariana Odio-Zúñiga, 2021. "Work, Leisure, and Family: From the Silent Generation to Millennials," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 385-424, October.
    10. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Maennig, Wolfgang & Mueller, Steffen Q., 2022. "The generation gap in direct democracy: Age vs. cohort effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Keller, Elisa, 2014. "The slowdown in American educational attainment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 252-270.
    12. Mestieri, Martí & Basco, Sergi & Smagghue, Gabriel & Liegey, Maxime, 2020. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Trade across Occupations: A Test of the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem," CEPR Discussion Papers 15186, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. William G. Gale & Hilary Gelfond & Jason J. Fichtner & Benjamin H. Harris, 2021. "The Wealth of Generations, With Special Attention to the Millennials," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Distribution and Mobility of Income and Wealth, pages 145-174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life-cycle earnings; flattening; skill price; education composition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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