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Expansionary Austerity: Reallocating Credit Amid Fiscal Consolidation

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Abstract

We study the impact of public debt limits on economic growth exploiting the introduction of a Mexican law capping the debt of subnational governments. Despite larger fiscal consolidation, states with higher ex-ante public debt grew substantially faster after the law, albeit at the expense of increased extreme poverty. Credit registry data suggests that the mechanism behind this result is a reduction in crowding out. After the law, banks operating in more indebted states reallocate credit away from local governments and into private firms. The unwinding of crowding out is stronger for riskier firms, firms borrowing from banks more exposed to local public debt, and for firms operating in states with lower public spending on infrastructure projects.

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  • Bernardo Morais & José-Luis Peydró & Claudia Ruiz-Ortega, 2021. "Expansionary Austerity: Reallocating Credit Amid Fiscal Consolidation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1323, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1323
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2021.1323
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crowding out; Government lending; Subnational debt; Banks; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L33 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise - - - Comparison of Public and Private Enterprise and Nonprofit Institutions; Privatization; Contracting Out
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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