IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/23310.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government Debt and Corporate Leverage: International Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Irem Demirci
  • Jennifer Huang
  • Clemens Sialm

Abstract

We investigate the impact of government debt on corporate financing decisions. We document a negative relation between government debt and corporate leverage using data on 40 countries between 1990 and 2014. This negative relation holds only for government debt that is financed domestically and is stronger for larger and more profitable firms and in countries with more developed equity markets. In order to address potential endogeneity concerns, we use an instrumental variable approach based on military spending and a quasi-natural experiment based on the introduction of the Euro currency. Our findings suggest that government debt crowds out corporate debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Irem Demirci & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm, 2017. "Government Debt and Corporate Leverage: International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 23310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23310
    Note: AP CF ITI PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23310.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. Ivo Welch, 2004. "Capital Structure and Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 106-131, February.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    5. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2010. "A Gap‐Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 993-1028, June.
    6. Sergey Chernenko & Adi Sunderam, 2012. "The Real Consequences of Market Segmentation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2041-2069.
    7. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    8. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
    9. Krishnamurthy, Arvind & Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette, 2015. "The impact of Treasury supply on financial sector lending and stability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 571-600.
    10. de Jong, Abe & Kabir, Rezaul & Nguyen, Thuy Thu, 2008. "Capital structure around the world: The roles of firm- and country-specific determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1954-1969, September.
    11. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2005. "Debt Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1129-1165, June.
    12. Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2007. "Do Tests of Capital Structure Theory Mean What They Say?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1747-1787, August.
    13. Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2006. "Capital structure, credit risk, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 519-550, December.
    14. Giannetti, Mariassunta, 2003. "Do Better Institutions Mitigate Agency Problems? Evidence from Corporate Finance Choices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 185-212, March.
    15. Antje Berndt & Hanno Lustig & Şevin Yeltekin, 2012. "How Does the US Government Finance Fiscal Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 69-104, January.
    16. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 341-369, May.
    17. Foley-Fisher, Nathan & Ramcharan, Rodney & Yu, Edison, 2016. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on firm financing constraints: Evidence from the maturity extension program," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 409-429.
    18. Marco Pagano, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(4), pages 531-554, Winter.
    19. Halling, Michael & Yu, Jin & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Leverage dynamics over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 21-41.
    20. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
    21. Laurence Booth & Varouj Aivazian & Asli Demirguc‐Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2001. "Capital Structures in Developing Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 87-130, February.
    22. Carlin, Wendy & Mayer, Colin, 2003. "Finance, investment, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 191-226, July.
    23. John Graham & Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2014. "How Does Government Borrowing Affect Corporate Financing and Investment?," NBER Working Papers 20581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Michael L. Lemmon & Michael R. Roberts & Jaime F. Zender, 2008. "Back to the Beginning: Persistence and the Cross‐Section of Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1575-1608, August.
    25. Robert Taggart, Jr, 1986. "Have U.S. Corporations Grown Financially Weak?," NBER Chapters, in: Financing Corporate Capital Formation, pages 13-34, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Friedman, Milton, 1972. "Comments on the Critics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(5), pages 906-950, Sept.-Oct.
    27. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Levy, Amnon, 2003. "Capital structure choice: macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 75-109, April.
    28. Claessens, Stijn & Djankov, Simeon & Nenova, Tatiana, 2000. "Corporate risk around the world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2271, The World Bank.
    29. Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2014. "Do Peer Firms Affect Corporate Financial Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 139-178, February.
    30. Ivo Welch, 2011. "Two Common Problems in Capital Structure Research: The Financial‐Debt‐To‐Asset Ratio and Issuing Activity Versus Leverage Changes," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, March.
    31. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1986. "Implications of Government Deficits for Interest Rates, Equity Returns, and Corporate Financing," NBER Chapters, in: Financing Corporate Capital Formation, pages 67-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out Or Crowding In? The Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," NBER Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Beck, Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2006. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility: Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1146-1167, November.
    34. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1995. "What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1421-1460, December.
    35. Frank, Murray Z. & Goyal, Vidhan K., 2003. "Testing the pecking order theory of capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 217-248, February.
    36. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4187-4241, December.
    37. Fan, Joseph P. H. & Titman, Sheridan & Twite, Garry, 2012. "An International Comparison of Capital Structure and Debt Maturity Choices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 23-56, February.
    38. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2107-2137 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. HARRY DeANGELO & RICHARD ROLL, 2015. "How Stable Are Corporate Capital Structures?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 373-418, February.
    40. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:1:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Graham, John R. & Leary, Mark T. & Roberts, Michael R., 2015. "A century of capital structure: The leveraging of corporate America," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 658-683.
    42. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 1999. "Institutions, financial markets, and firm debt maturity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 295-336, December.
    43. Mark T. Leary, 2009. "Bank Loan Supply, Lender Choice, and Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1143-1185, June.
    44. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Whited, Toni M., 2011. "Capital structure dynamics and transitory debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 235-261, February.
    45. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, February.
    46. Dominique C. Badoer & Christopher M. James, 2016. "The Determinants of Long-Term Corporate Debt Issuances," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 457-492, February.
    47. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1986. "Financing Corporate Capital Formation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie86-1.
    48. John R. Graham, 2003. "Taxes and Corporate Finance: A Review," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1075-1129.
    49. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Graham & Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2014. "How Does Government Borrowing Affect Corporate Financing and Investment?," NBER Working Papers 20581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. İbrahim Yarba & Z. Nuray Güner, 2020. "Leverage dynamics: Do financial development and government leverage matter? Evidence from a major developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2473-2507, November.
    3. Vidhan K. Goyal & Frank Packer, 2017. "Capital Structure in Emerging Asia," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2017-48, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Dec 2017.
    4. Julio Pindado & Ignacio Requejo & Juan C. Rivera, 2020. "Does money supply shape corporate capital structure? International evidence from a panel data analysis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 554-584, April.
    5. Antzoulatos, Angelos A. & Koufopoulos, Kostas & Lambrinoudakis, Costas & Tsiritakis, Emmanuel, 2016. "Supply of capital and capital structure: The role of financial development," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 166-195.
    6. Raja Zekri Ben Hamouda & Nessrine Hamzaoui & Faouzi Jilani, 2023. "Capital Structure Determinants: New Evidence from the MENA Region Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 144-163, January.
    7. Shofiqur Rahman, 2020. "Credit supply and capital structure adjustments," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 949-972, December.
    8. Erasmo Giambona & Rafael Matta & José-Luis Peydró & Ye Wang, 2020. "Quantitative easing, investment, and safe assets: the corporate-bond lending channel," Economics Working Papers 1722, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2020.
    9. Snehal S Herwadkar, 2017. "Corporate leverage in EMEs: did the global financial crisis change the determinants?," BIS Working Papers 681, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Pindado, Julio & Requejo, Ignacio & Rivera, Juan C., 2017. "Economic forecast and corporate leverage choices: The role of the institutional environment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 121-144.
    11. He, Wen & Hu, Maggie Rong & Mi, Lin & Yu, Jin, 2021. "How stable are corporate capital structures? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2012. "Market timing, taxes and capital structure: evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints t3mvs, Center for Open Science.
    13. Usman Shettima & Nazam Dzolkarnaini, 2024. "Deposit‐borrowing substitutability: Evidence from microfinance institutions around the world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3326-3343, July.
    14. Quratulain Zafar & Winai Wongsurawat & David Camino, 2019. "The determinants of leverage decisions: Evidence from Asian emerging markets," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1598836-159, January.
    15. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Bottazzi, Laura & Golinelli, Roberto, 2020. "A multilevel index of heterogeneous short-term and long-term debt dynamics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Halling, Michael & Yu, Jin & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Leverage dynamics over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 21-41.
    17. Brennan, Michael J. & Kraft, Holger, 2016. "Leaning against the wind: Debt financing in the face of adversity," SAFE Working Paper Series 119, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    18. Kayo, Eduardo K. & Kimura, Herbert, 2011. "Hierarchical determinants of capital structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 358-371, February.
    19. San Martín, Pablo & Saona, Paolo, 2017. "Capital structure in the Chilean corporate sector: Revisiting the stylized facts," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-174.
    20. Lee, Lillian & Chowdhury, Anup & Shubita, Moade, 2023. "Impact of Paris Agreement on financing strategy: Evidence from global FPSO industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.