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The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration

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  • Adelino, Manuel
  • Ferreira, Miguel
  • Cunha, Igor

Abstract

We show that municipalities’ financial constraints can have a significant impact on local employment and growth. We identify these effects by exploiting exogenous upgrades in U.S. municipal bond ratings caused by Moody’s recalibration of its ratings scale in 2010. We find that local governments increase expenditures because their debt capacity expands following a rating upgrade. These expenditures have an estimated local income multiplier of 1.9 and a cost per job of $20,000 per year. Our findings suggest that debt-financed increases in government spending can improve economic conditions during recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Adelino, Manuel & Ferreira, Miguel & Cunha, Igor, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration," CEPR Discussion Papers 11811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11811
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public finance; Local economy; Municipal bonds; Credit ratings; Government employment; Private employment; Income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

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