IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/993.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor Market Dynamics and Youth Unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia

Author

Listed:
  • Ragui Assaad

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Caroline Krafft

    (Department of Economics, St. Catherine University)

Abstract

Although it is well-established in the literature that unemployment is a labor market insertion problem in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the dynamics driving youth unemployment remain poorly understood. Using panel and retrospective data from the Labor Market Panel Surveys in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia, we are able to substantially improve our understanding of youth unemployment in MENA by studying flows into and out of employment and unemployment. We also decompose trends in the unemployment rates in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia over the past decade into the contributions of individuals entering unemployment from outside the labor force and from previous employment, and changes in the duration of unemployment these individuals experience. Models for the incidence and duration of unemployment illustrate the relationship between individuals’ characteristics and their unemployment dynamics

Suggested Citation

  • Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft, 2016. "Labor Market Dynamics and Youth Unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia," Working Papers 993, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:993
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/993.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://bit.ly/1NW2LJl
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David McKenzie, 2017. "How Effective Are Active Labor Market Policies in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 127-154.
    2. Ragui Assaad & Christine Binzel & May Gadallah, 2010. "Transitions To Employment And Marriage Among Young Men In Egypt," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 39-88.
    3. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    4. Jackline Wahba & Ragui Assaad, 2017. "Flexible Labor Regulations and Informality in Egypt," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 962-984, November.
    5. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 1123-1167.
    6. Krafft Caroline & Assaad Ragui & Marouani Mohamed Ali & Cheung Ruby & LaPlante Ava, 2023. "Are labor markets in the Middle East and North Africa recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic?," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 14(1), pages 1-68, January.
    7. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Colette Salemi, 2023. "Socioeconomic Status and the Changing Nature of School-to-Work Transitions in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(4), pages 697-723, August.
    8. T. Addison, John & Portugal, Pedro, 1998. "Some specification issues in unemployment duration analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 53-66, March.
    9. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    10. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Shaimaa Yassin, 2018. "Comparing retrospective and panel data collection methods to assess labor market dynamics," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, December.
    11. Ragui Assaad & Christine Binzel & May Gadallah, 2010. "Transitions to Employment and Marriage Among Young Men in Egypt," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 39-88, January.
    12. repec:lan:wpaper:4467 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Marco Manacorda & Furio Camillo Rosati & Marco Ranzani & Giuseppe Dachille, 2017. "Pathways from school to work in the developing world," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-40, December.
    14. Ragui Assaad, 2014. "Making sense of Arab labor markets: the enduring legacy of dualism," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, December.
    15. Stampini Marco & Verdier-Chouchane Audrey, 2011. "Labor Market Dynamics in Tunisia: The Issue of Youth Unemployment," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-35, September.
    16. Shireen Alazzawi & Vladimir Hlasny, 2022. "Youth labor market vulnerabilities: evidence from Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(7), pages 1670-1699, January.
    17. Samer Kherfi, 2015. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration," Working Papers 909, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2015.
    18. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft, 2013. "The Egypt labor market panel survey: introducing the 2012 round," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-30, December.
    19. Shaimaa Yassin, 2014. "Job Accession, Separation and Mobility in the Egyptian Labor Market Over the Past Decade," Working Papers 881, Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2014.
    20. Krafft Caroline & Assaad Ragui & Rahman Khandker Wahedur, 2021. "Introducing the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2018," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-40, January.
    21. Krafft Caroline & Assaad Ragui, 2021. "Introducing the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey 2016," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-42, January.
    22. Rana Hendy, 2015. "Women's Participation in the Egyptian Labor Market: 1998-2012," Working Papers 907, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2015.
    23. Assaad, Ragui & Krafft, Caroline (ed.), 2015. "The Egyptian Labor Market in an Era of Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198737254.
    24. Ragui Assaad & Samir Ghazouani & Caroline Krafft & Dominique J. Rolando, 2016. "Introducing the Tunisia Labor Market Panel Survey 2014," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    25. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Irene Selwaness, 2022. "The Impact of Marriage on Women's Employment in the Middle East and North Africa," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 247-279, April.
    26. Matthew Groh & David McKenzie & Nour Shammout & Tara Vishwanath, 2015. "Testing the importance of search frictions and matching through a randomized experiment in Jordan," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-20, December.
    27. Stijn Broecke, 2013. "Tackling graduate unemployment in North Africa through employment subsidies: A look at the SIVP programme in Tunisia," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
    28. Karshenas, Massoud & Moghadam, Valentine M. & Alami, Randa, 2014. "Social Policy after the Arab Spring: States and Social Rights in the MENA Region," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 726-739.
    29. Marco Stampini & Audrey Chouchane, 2011. "Working Paper 123 - Labor Market Dynamics in Tunisia: The Issue of Youth Unemployment," Working Paper Series 231, African Development Bank.
    30. Raj M. Desai & Anders Olofsgård & Tarik M. Yousef, 2009. "The Logic Of Authoritarian Bargains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 93-125, March.
    31. Eleonora Bertoni & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2017. "A Multilevel Analysis of Unemployment in Egypt," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 31(4), pages 494-514, December.
    32. Bouhari, Mohamed & Kriaa, Farouk, 2018. "Characterizing the school-to-work transitions of young men and women in Tunisia," Economics, Management and Sustainability, "SciView.Net" Scientific Platform, issue 2, pages 85-106.
    33. Caroline Krafft & Ragui Assaad, 2020. "Employment’s Role in Enabling and Constraining Marriage in the Middle East and North Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2297-2325, December.
    34. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Dominique J. Rolando, 2021. "Evaluating the impact of housing market liberalization on the timing of marriage: Evidence from Egypt," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(3), pages 343-361, September.
    35. Caroline Krafft & Reham Rizk, 2021. "The promise and peril of youth entrepreneurship in the Middle East and North Africa," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(8), pages 1500-1526, July.
    36. Assaad, Ragui (ed.), 2014. "The Jordanian Labor Market in the New Millennium," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198702054.
    37. repec:lan:wpaper:4769 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Ragui Assaad & Moundir Lassassi & Shaimaa Yassin & Rana Hendy, 2020. "Explaining the MENA paradox: Rising educational attainment yet stagnant female labor force participation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(28), pages 817-850.
    39. Assaad, Ragui & Arntz, Melanie, 2005. "Constrained Geographical Mobility and Gendered Labor Market Outcomes Under Structural Adjustment: Evidence from Egypt," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 431-454, March.
    40. Ghassan Dibeh & Ali Fakih & Walid Marrouch, 2019. "Employment and skill mismatch among youth in Lebanon," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(8), pages 1438-1457, May.
    41. Mahmoud Arayssi & Ali Fakih & Nathir Haimoun, 2023. "Skill Mismatch, Nepotism, Job Satisfaction, and Young Females in the MENA Region," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caroline Krafft & Ragui Assaad, 2020. "Employment’s Role in Enabling and Constraining Marriage in the Middle East and North Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2297-2325, December.
    2. Fallah, Belal & Krafft, Caroline & Wahba, Jackline, 2019. "The impact of refugees on employment and wages in Jordan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 203-216.
    3. Alaref,Jumana Jamal Subhi & Nikaein Towfighian,Samira & Paez Salamanca,Gustavo Nicolas & Audah,Mohammed Thabet M, 2020. "The Impact of Employer Discrimination on Female Labor Market Outcomes : Experimental Evidence from Tunisia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9361, The World Bank.
    4. Harkat, Tahar & Driouchi, Ahmed & Achehboune, Amale, 2016. "Time Series Analysis & Choices for General and Vocational Education in Arab Economies," MPRA Paper 74770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Irene Selwaness & Caroline Krafft, 2021. "The Dynamics of Family Formation and Women’s Work: What Facilitates and Hinders Female Employment in the Middle East and North Africa?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(3), pages 533-587, June.
    6. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Irene Selwaness, 2017. "The Impact of Early Marriage on Women’s Employment in the Middle East and North Africa," Working Papers 1086, Economic Research Forum, revised 04 2017.
    7. Barsoum, Ghada, 2020. "When marketization encounters centralized governance: Private Higher education in Egypt," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Ragui Assaad & Samir Ghazouani & Caroline Krafft & Dominique J. Rolando, 2016. "Introducing the Tunisia Labor Market Panel Survey 2014," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Caroline Krafft & Reham Rizk, 2018. "The Promise and Peril of Youth Entrepreneurship in MENA," Working Papers 1257, Economic Research Forum, revised 19 Nov 2018.
    10. El-Haddad Amirah, 2020. "Picking Winners: Identifying Leading Sectors for Egypt and Tunisia Using the Product Space Methodology," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-80, April.
    11. Caroline Krafft & Ragui Assaad, 2018. "Do More Productive Firms Pay Workers More? Evidence from Egypt," Working Papers 1222, Economic Research Forum, revised 18 Sep 2018.
    12. Almas Heshmati & Ilham Haouas & Kazi Sohag & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2017. "Hiring and Separation Rates Before and after the Arab Spring in the Tunisian Labour Market," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(2), pages 259-278, June.
    13. Driouchi, Ahmed & Harkat, Tahar, 2016. "Macroeconomic and School Variables to Reveal Country Choices of General and Vocational Education: A Cross-Country Analysis with focus on Arab Economies," MPRA Paper 73455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ragui Assaad & Samir Ghazouani & Caroline Krafft, 2017. "The Composition of Labor Supply and Unemployment in Tunisia," Working Papers 1150, Economic Research Forum, revised 11 Jan 2017.
    15. Iman Al‐Ayouty & Hoda Hassaballa, 2020. "Regional unemployment in Egypt: Spatial panel data analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 565-577, December.
    16. Jingyuan Deng & Nelly Elmallakh & Luca Flabbi & Roberta Gatti, 2024. "Labor market transitions in Egypt post-Arab Spring," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 117-141, January.
    17. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Dominique J. Rolando, 2017. "The Role of Housing Markets in the Timing of Marriage in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia," Working Papers 1081, Economic Research Forum, revised 04 Oct 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Irene Selwaness & Caroline Krafft, 2021. "The Dynamics of Family Formation and Women’s Work: What Facilitates and Hinders Female Employment in the Middle East and North Africa?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(3), pages 533-587, June.
    2. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Colette Salemi, 2023. "Socioeconomic Status and the Changing Nature of School-to-Work Transitions in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(4), pages 697-723, August.
    3. Caroline Krafft & Ragui Assaad, 2020. "Employment’s Role in Enabling and Constraining Marriage in the Middle East and North Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2297-2325, December.
    4. Caroline Krafft & Ragui Assaad & Ruby Cheung, 2024. "Introducing the Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey 2022," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(4), pages 81-106.
    5. Krafft Caroline & Assaad Ragui & Rahman Khandker Wahedur, 2021. "Introducing the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2018," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-40, January.
    6. Krafft Caroline & Assaad Ragui, 2021. "Introducing the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey 2016," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-42, January.
    7. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Dominique J. Rolando, 2017. "The Role of Housing Markets in the Timing of Marriage in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia," Working Papers 1081, Economic Research Forum, revised 04 Oct 2017.
    8. Ragui Assaad & Samir Ghazouani & Caroline Krafft & Dominique J. Rolando, 2016. "Introducing the Tunisia Labor Market Panel Survey 2014," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Caroline Krafft, 2020. "Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1218, October.
    10. Ragui Assaad & Moundir Lassassi & Shaimaa Yassin & Rana Hendy, 2020. "Explaining the MENA paradox: Rising educational attainment yet stagnant female labor force participation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(28), pages 817-850.
    11. Caroline Krafft & Reham Rizk, 2018. "The Promise and Peril of Youth Entrepreneurship in MENA," Working Papers 1257, Economic Research Forum, revised 19 Nov 2018.
    12. Assaad, Ragui & Krafft, Caroline & Selwaness, Irene, 2017. "The Impact of Early Marriage on Women’s Employment in the Middle East and North Africa," GLO Discussion Paper Series 66, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    13. Jingyuan Deng & Nelly Elmallakh & Luca Flabbi & Roberta Gatti, 2024. "Labor market transitions in Egypt post-Arab Spring," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 117-141, January.
    14. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft & Shaimaa Yassin, 2018. "Comparing retrospective and panel data collection methods to assess labor market dynamics," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, December.
    15. Shaimaa Yassin, 2016. "Constructing Labor Market Transitions Recall Weights in Retrospective Data: An Application to Egypt and Jordan," IRENE Working Papers 16-07, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Ali Fakih & Nathir Haimoun & Mohamad Kassem, 2020. "Youth Unemployment, Gender and Institutions During Transition: Evidence from the Arab Spring," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 311-336, July.
    17. Samer Kherfi, 2015. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration," Working Papers 909, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2015.
    18. Assaad, Ragui & Krafft, Caroline, 2017. "Excluded Generation: The Growing Challenges of Labor Market Insertion for Egyptian Youth," IZA Discussion Papers 10970, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Anda David & Rana Hendy, 2016. "Does International Migration Help Them Marry earlier? A Hazard Model for the Case of Egypt," Working Papers 1051, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2016.
    20. Girum Abebe & A Stefano Caria & Marcel Fafchamps & Paolo Falco & Simon Franklin & Simon Quinn, 2021. "Anonymity or Distance? Job Search and Labour Market Exclusion in a Growing African City [Endogenous Stratification in Randomized Experiments]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(3), pages 1279-1310.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:993. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.