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Labor Market Transitions in Egypt Post-Arab Spring

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  • Deng,Jingyuan
  • Elmallakh,Nelly Youssef Louis William
  • Flabbi,Luca
  • Gatti,Roberta V.

Abstract

This paper examines the Arab Republic of Egypt’s labor market transition dynamics post–Arab Spring based on the two most recent rounds of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey conducted in 2012 and 2018. In addition to providing disaggregated-level analysis by examining labor market transitions by gender, education, and age groups, the paper provides a cross-country, cross-regional perspective by comparing Egypt’s labor market transitions with Mexico’s, relying on data from the Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo. To match the span of Mexico’s transitions (which are measured over a one-year period) and Egypt’s (which are measured over six years), the analysis uses Monte Carlo simulations of repeated discrete-time Markov chains. Based on these results, the Egyptian labor market appears to be highly rigid compared to the Mexican labor market, which instead shows a large degree of dynamism regardless of individual initial labor market states at baseline. Auxiliary regression analyses focusing on transitions to and from the dominant absorbing labor market states in Egypt —public sector employment for both genders, nonparticipation for women, and the informal sector for men—show that having a post-secondary education is associated with a lower probability of remaining out of the labor force for women who were already out of the labor force at baseline, while being married at baseline is found to be a significant predictor for women to stay out of the labor force if they were already so. Among men, the better educated are found to be more likely to secure formal employment, be it in the public or private sector, and are more likely to keep their public formal jobs once they secure them.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng,Jingyuan & Elmallakh,Nelly Youssef Louis William & Flabbi,Luca & Gatti,Roberta V., 2022. "Labor Market Transitions in Egypt Post-Arab Spring," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10126, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gong, Xiaodong & Van Soest, Arthur & Villagomez, Elizabeth, 2004. "Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-36, October.
    2. Hertog, Steffen, 2020. "Segmented market economies in the Arab world: the political economy of insider-outsider divisions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103677, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Ragui Assaad & Caroline Krafft, 2023. "Labour market dynamics and youth unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 37(4), pages 519-553, December.
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    5. Krafft Caroline & Assaad Ragui & Rahman Khandker Wahedur, 2021. "Introducing the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2018," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-40, January.
    6. Gong, X. & van Soest, A.H.O. & Villagomez, E., 2000. "Mobility in the Urban Labor Market : A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico," Other publications TiSEM ac9ec63a-5468-48e0-a4e5-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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