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Feeling the Pulse of Global Value Chains: Air Cargo and COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Findlay

    (Australian National University, Australia)

  • Hein Roelfsema

    (Utrecht University, the Netherlands)

  • Niall Van De Wouw

    (CLIVE Data Services, the Netherlands)

Abstract

This paper focuses on air cargo market development, with special attention to the connections between countries in Asia, the European Union, and the United States. Before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis, we show that participation in global value chains played a crucial role in how countries in Asia increased their exposure to the European Union market, which was hit hardest by the COVID-19 crisis. Analysing the effects of the crisis in 2020- using a fuzzy set complexity approach and recent high-frequency data on air cargo transport - we show that such demand effects, together with domestic contraction conditions, explain a large share of variation in air cargo dynamics across countries in Asia. However, we also show that implementing best practices in pandemic control positively impacts air cargo recovery for countries that cannot rely on export market rebounds. After reviewing the convergence in air cargo business models since 2010, the paper continues to assess recovery options. The main conclusion is that business models will converge on long haul point-to-point models that combine passengers and cargo, moving away from the current hub and spoke system.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Findlay & Hein Roelfsema & Niall Van De Wouw, 2021. "Feeling the Pulse of Global Value Chains: Air Cargo and COVID-19," Working Papers DP-2021-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  • Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Y Tong & Yao Li & Tuan Yuen Kong, 2021. "Exploring Digital Economic Agreements to Promote Digital Connectivity in ASEAN," Working Papers DP-2021-24, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Air cargo; ASEAN; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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