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Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China

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  • Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Julien Martin

    (UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Isabelle Mejean

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

Abstract

How do firms in global value chains react to input shortages? We examine micro-level adjustments to supply chain shocks, building on the Covid-19 pandemic as a case study. French firms sourcing inputs from China just before the early lockdown in the country experienced a relative drop in imports that increases from February to April 2020. This shock on input purchases transmits to the rest of the supply chain through exposed firm's domestic and export sales. Between February and June, firms exposed to the Chinese early lockdown experienced a 5.5% drop in domestic sales and a 5% drop in exports, in relative terms with respect to comparable non-exposed firms. The drop in foreign sales is entirely attributable to a lower volume of exports driven by a temporary withdrawal from occasional markets. We then dig into the heterogeneity of the transmission across treated firms. Whereas the ex-ante geographic diversification of inputs does not seem to mitigate the impact of the shock, firms with relatively high inventories have been able to absorb the supply shock better.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier & Julien Martin & Isabelle Mejean, 2022. "Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China," Post-Print hal-03880125, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03880125
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00166-8
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03880125
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    Cited by:

    1. Lebastard, Laura & Serafini, Roberta, 2023. "Understanding the impact of COVID-19 supply disruptions on exporters in global value chains," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 105.
    2. Khalil, Makram & Weber, Marc-Daniel, 2021. "Chinese supply chain shocks," MPRA Paper 110356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.
    4. Konstantins Benkovskis & Jaanika Merikull & Aurelija Proskute, 2024. "The transmission of trade shocks across countries: firm-level evidence from the Covid-19 crisis," Working Papers 2024/01, Latvijas Banka.
    5. Chacha, Peter Wankuru & Kirui, Benard Kipyegon & Wiedemann, Verena, 2024. "Supply Chains in Times of Crisis: Evidence from Kenya’s Production Network," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Bublu Thakur-Weigold & Sébastien Miroudot, 2024. "Supply chain myths in the resilience and deglobalization narrative: consequences for policy," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 99-111, March.
    7. Huzaifa Shamsi, 2024. "Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Assessing Firm Risk, Environmental Commitments, and Information Channels in the wake of COVID-19," IIMA Working Papers WP 2024-01-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    8. Nefs, Merten & van Haaren, Jeroen & van Oort, Frank, 2023. "The limited regional employment benefits of XXL-logistics centres in the Netherlands," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    9. Trunschke, Markus & Peters, Bettina & Czarnitzki, Dirk & Rammer, Christian, 2024. "Pandemic effects: Do innovation activities of firms suffer from Long COVID?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(7).
    10. Alviarez, Vanessa, 2022. "Global and Regional Value Chains in Latin America in Times of Pandemic," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12487, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2023. "Japan's Dependence on China in Supply Chains: Diversion of Imports from China to ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 897, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    12. de Lucio, Juan & Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2023. "Do firms react to supply chain disruptions?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 902-916.
    13. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain," Working Papers 243, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    14. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    15. Pitschner, Stefan, 2022. "Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages: COVID in perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    16. Gloria Allione & Claire Giordano, 2023. "Are the Happy Few still happy? Exporter heterogeneity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 816, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Cajal-Grossi, Julia & Del Prete, Davide & Macchiavello, Rocco, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and sourcing strategies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    18. LIANG, Licheng, 2023. "Resilience of Japanese Multinational Enterprises' Production Networks during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion Paper Series 742, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    19. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.
    20. Jonas Böschemeier & Karsten Mau, 2023. "Foreign Supply Shocks and the Structure of Trade in a Small Open Economy," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(4), pages 303-342, December.
    21. Meier, Matthias & Pinto, Eugenio, 2024. "COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    22. Lebastard, Laura & Matani, Marco & Serafini, Roberta, 2023. "GVC exporter performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of supply bottlenecks," Working Paper Series 2766, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 pandemic; Supply chain disruptions; Transmission of shocks; Global value chains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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