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The underlying drivers and future development of air cargo

Author

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  • Kupfer, Franziska
  • Meersman, Hilde
  • Onghena, Evy
  • Van de Voorde, Eddy

Abstract

Air cargo plays a crucial role in the air transport chain and in the globalized economy. As for other modes of transport, the demand for air cargo is a derived demand. Previous studies showed that the main determinants of air cargo demand are merchandise trade and the share of manufactures in merchandise trade. This paper aims to fill a gap in the existing literature by additionally taking the influence of air freight yields and oil prices into account when modelling the global air cargo development. Furthermore, it provides an insight into the future development of air cargo. Forecasts until 2023 are made based on a number of scenarios for the main determinants of air cargo demand. Moreover, an insight is provided into the current air cargo market, including traffic levels and different types of actors and traffic flows. The results are useful not only for academics but also for industry stakeholders for which air cargo is an important contributor to profit and/or cash levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kupfer, Franziska & Meersman, Hilde & Onghena, Evy & Van de Voorde, Eddy, 2017. "The underlying drivers and future development of air cargo," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 6-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:6-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.07.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Jo, Ah-Hyun & Chang, Young-Tae, 2023. "The effect of airport efficiency on air traffic, using DEA and multilateral resistance terms gravity models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Alexander, D.W. & Merkert, R., 2021. "Applications of gravity models to evaluate and forecast US international air freight markets post-GFC," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 52-62.
    4. Li, Tao, 2020. "A SWOT analysis of China's air cargo sector in the context of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Aydın, Umut & Ülengin, Burç, 2022. "Analyzing air cargo flows of Turkish domestic routes: A comparative analysis of gravity models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Nguyen, Quang Hai, 2024. "Modeling the volatility of international air freight: A case study of Singapore using the SARIMAX-EGARCH model," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Simon Emde & Hamid Abedinnia & Anne Lange & Christoph H. Glock, 2020. "Scheduling personnel for the build-up of unit load devices at an air cargo terminal with limited space," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 42(2), pages 397-426, June.
    8. Zhang, Yundi & Hu, Rong & Chen, Ruotian & Cai, Dong-ling & Jiang, Changmin, 2024. "Competition in cargo and passenger between high-speed rail and airlines—considering the vertical structure of transportation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 120-133.
    9. Fabian Baier & Peter Berster & Marc Gelhausen, 2022. "Global cargo gravitation model: airports matter for forecasts," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 219-238, February.
    10. Balliauw, Matteo & Meersman, Hilde & Onghena, Evy & Van de Voorde, Eddy, 2018. "US all-cargo carriers’ cost structure and efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 29-45.
    11. Wu, You & Lange, Anne & Mantin, Benny, 2022. "Who benefits from air service agreements? The case of international air cargo operations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 281-303.
    12. Yu, Shunan & Yang, Zhongzhen & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Differential pricing strategies of air freight transport carriers in the spot market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 9-15.
    13. Hong, Seock-Jin & Randall, Wesley & Han, Keunsoo & Malhan, Amit Sundeep, 2018. "Estimation viability of dedicated freighter aircraft of combination carriers: A data envelopment and principal component analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 12-20.
    14. Christopher Findlay & Hein Roelfsema & Niall Van De Wouw, 2021. "Feeling the Pulse of Global Value Chains: Air Cargo and COVID-19," Working Papers DP-2021-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    15. Chen, Zhe & Jiang, Hai, 2020. "Impacts of high-speed rail on domestic air cargo traffic in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1-13.
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    17. Van Asch, Thomas & Dewulf, Wouter & Kupfer, Franziska & Cárdenas, Ivan & Van de Voorde, Eddy, 2020. "Cross-border e-commerce logistics – Strategic success factors for airports," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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