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U.S. Natural Gas Exports and their Global Impacts

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  • Vipin Arora
  • Yiyong Cai

Abstract

We evaluate potential global impacts of increase in U.S. natural gas exports as a result of the shale gas boom. To our knowledge this is the first such analysis using a global economic model to understand this timely policy issue. Our primary conclusion is that world economic activity is higher through most of the simulation period [2014-2035] when U.S. natural gas exports rise. The overall U.S. results mirror the global ones, but the magnitude of income gains depends upon how the rate of increase and level of exports are determined, and the price elasticity of natural gas supply. The U.S. benefits more when export increases and levels depend on natural gas production rather than when they are pre-determined by assumption. The economic impacts on other natural gas importers and exporters can change as well based on how export levels are determined. The effects on natural gas prices, consumption, and production in individual countries vary with the scenarios and model parameter values.

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  • Vipin Arora & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "U.S. Natural Gas Exports and their Global Impacts," CAMA Working Papers 2014-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-22
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    Cited by:

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    2. Peters, Jeffrey C., 2017. "Natural gas and spillover from the US Clean Power Plan into the Paris Agreement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 41-47.
    3. Chen, Yuntian & Jiang, Su & Zhang, Dongxiao & Liu, Chaoyang, 2017. "An adsorbed gas estimation model for shale gas reservoirs via statistical learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 327-341.
    4. Nie, Pu-yan & Yang, Yong-cong, 2016. "Effects of energy price fluctuations on industries with energy inputs: An application to China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 329-334.
    5. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    6. Middleton, Richard S. & Gupta, Rajan & Hyman, Jeffrey D. & Viswanathan, Hari S., 2017. "The shale gas revolution: Barriers, sustainability, and emerging opportunities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 88-95.
    7. Edwards, Joel & Othman, Maazuza & Burn, Stewart, 2015. "A review of policy drivers and barriers for the use of anaerobic digestion in Europe, the United States and Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 815-828.
    8. Yu Zhang & John A. Rupp & John D. Graham, 2021. "Contrasting Public and Scientific Assessments of Fracking," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    9. Ernest Owusu Boakye & Kari Heimonen & Juha Junttila, 2024. "Commodity markets and the global macroeconomy: evidence from machine learning and GVAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(5), pages 1919-1965, November.
    10. Bulkani Bulkani & Sonedi Sonedi & Chandra Anugrah Putra, 2021. "The Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Development Nexus: Fresh Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 607-614.
    11. Girma T. Chala & Abd Rashid Abd Aziz & Ftwi Y. Hagos, 2018. "Natural Gas Engine Technologies: Challenges and Energy Sustainability Issue," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-44, October.
    12. Hao, Xiaoqing & An, Haizhong & Qi, Hai & Gao, Xiangyun, 2016. "Evolution of the exergy flow network embodied in the global fossil energy trade: Based on complex network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1515-1522.
    13. Li, Raymond & Woo, Chi-Keung & Tishler, Asher & Zarnikau, Jay, 2022. "How price responsive is industrial demand for natural gas in the United States?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Li, Raymond & Woo, Chi-Keung & Tishler, Asher & Zarnikau, Jay, 2022. "Price responsiveness of commercial demand for natural gas in the US," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    15. Zou, Youqin & Yang, Changbing & Wu, Daishe & Yan, Chun & Zeng, Masun & Lan, Yingying & Dai, Zhenxue, 2016. "Probabilistic assessment of shale gas production and water demand at Xiuwu Basin in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 185-195.
    16. Liu, Yan & Shi, Xunpeng & Laurenceson, James, 2020. "Dynamics of Australia's LNG export performance: A modified constant market shares analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Yuan, Jiehui & Luo, Dongkun & Feng, Lianyong, 2015. "A review of the technical and economic evaluation techniques for shale gas development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-65.
    18. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2014. "A dynamic analysis on global natural gas trade network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 23-33.
    19. Huang, Jingwei & Jin, Tianying & Barrufet, Maria & Killough, John, 2020. "Evaluation of CO2 injection into shale gas reservoirs considering dispersed distribution of kerogen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    20. Ning Lin & Robert E. Brooks, 2021. "Global Liquified Natural Gas Trade under Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-30, October.
    21. Middleton, Richard S. & Carey, J. William & Currier, Robert P. & Hyman, Jeffrey D. & Kang, Qinjun & Karra, Satish & Jiménez-Martínez, Joaquín & Porter, Mark L. & Viswanathan, Hari S., 2015. "Shale gas and non-aqueous fracturing fluids: Opportunities and challenges for supercritical CO2," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 500-509.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural gas; exports; shale; general equilibrium; international;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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