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Emerging Asia's Growth and Policy Developments: Implications for Indonesia's Economy and Trade

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Strutt, Anna

Abstract

This paper projects Indonesia‟s production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources to support projections of the global economy. The baseline projection assumes trade-related policies as of 2007 do not change in each region but that endowments and real GDP change at exogenously selected rates. Because of the long period over which we are projecting, we modify the standard income elasticities of demand for farm products in rapidly growing developing countries so as to more appropriately reflect their likely values over this time-frame. Effects are reported for three policy reforms: an expansion of rice exports associated with the opening of Myanmar; Indonesia‟s recently-imposed export taxes on unprocessed primary products; and implementation of Indonesia‟s new Food Law.

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  • Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "Emerging Asia's Growth and Policy Developments: Implications for Indonesia's Economy and Trade," Conference papers 332298, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332298
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