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Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?

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  • Jung, Alexander
  • Kühl, Patrick

Abstract

This paper examines whether central bank communication stabilises euro area inflation expectations through the information and news channel. A novelty of the study is its use of data from Google Analytics on ECB website traffic as proxy for visitors’ attention to its communication. We conduct several econometric tests with daily data to measure the impact of ECB communication on the information demand of the public and ultimately on inflation expectations. Overall, this study shows that website attention, as captured by search volumes of visitors, influences euro area inflation expectations. We find that increased website attention contributes to narrowing the gap between market-based forecasts and (the mean of) longer-term professional inflation expectations. Our findings add to the theoretical evidence on the existence of an information and news channel. JEL Classification: C20, D80, E52, E58, G14

Suggested Citation

  • Jung, Alexander & Kühl, Patrick, 2021. "Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?," Working Paper Series 2547, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212547
    Note: 2106626
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    4. Valerio Astuti & Alessio Ciarlone & Alberto Coco, 2022. "The role of central bank communication in inflation-targeting Eastern European emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1381, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Tetiana Yukhymenko & Oleh Sorochan, 2024. "Impact of the Central Bank's Communication on Macrofinancial Outcomes," Working Papers 01/2024, National Bank of Ukraine.
    6. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "Are monetary policy shocks causal to bank health? Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Macroeconomic Surprises and the Demand for Information about Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 351-388, June.
    8. Antón Sarabia Arturo & Bazdresch Santiago & Lelo-de-Larrea Alejandra, 2023. "The Influence of Central Bank's Projections and Economic Narrative on Professional Forecasters' Expectations: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2023-21, Banco de México.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward guidance; high-frequency identification; information and news channel; information demand; website attention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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