IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03399287.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

ECB Projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Hubert

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

The European Central Bank publishes inflation projections quarterly and we aim to establish empirically whether they influence private inflation forecasts and whether they may be considered as an enhanced means of implementing policy decisions by facilitating private agents' information processing. We provide original evidence that ECB inflation projections do influence private inflation expectations positively, and that ECB projections convey signals about future ECB rate movements. This paper suggests that ECB projections enable private agents to correctly interpret and predict policy decisions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Post-Print hal-03399287, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03399287
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2008. "Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 80-96, October.
    2. Muto, Ichiro, 2011. "Monetary policy and learning from the central bank's forecast," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 52-66, January.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Shocks, structures or monetary policies? The Euro Area and US after 2001," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2476-2506, August.
    4. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
    5. Moscarini, Giuseppe, 2004. "Limited information capacity as a source of inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2003-2035, September.
    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    7. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
    8. Michael Ehrmann & Sylvester Eijffinger & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 1018-1052, September.
    9. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
    10. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    12. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    13. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Explaining Monetary Policy in Press Conferences," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 42-84, June.
    14. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    15. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    16. repec:fce:doctra:13-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 41-58, April.
    18. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2005. "Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 255-261, December.
    19. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    20. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
    21. Baeriswyl, Romain & Cornand, Camille, 2010. "The signaling role of policy actions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 682-695, September.
    22. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2134, CESifo.
    23. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    24. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-684, November.
    25. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Sims, Eric R., 2012. "Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 235-249.
    26. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2007. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 155-185, June.
    27. Walsh, Carl E., 2007. "Optimal Economic Transparency," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1t86w4ht, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    28. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    29. Carl E. Walsh, 2007. "Optimal Economic Transparency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 5-36, March.
    30. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    31. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Craig Hakkio, 2009. "Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts," NBER Working Papers 15424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Levin, Andrew T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Natalucci, Fabio M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 383, European Central Bank.
    33. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    34. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
    35. Adam, Klaus, 2009. "Monetary policy and aggregate volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 1-18.
    36. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    37. Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB, 1999-2006: Words and Deeds," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, September.
    38. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2134, CESifo.
    39. Issing, O., 2004. "The role of macroeconomic projections within the monetary policy strategy of the ECB," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 723-734, September.
    40. Geraats Petra M., 2005. "Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, February.
    41. Crowe, Christopher, 2010. "Testing the transparency benefits of inflation targeting: Evidence from private sector forecasts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-232, March.
    42. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    43. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob De Haan, 2009. "Has ECB communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions? An evaluation of the early years of the Economic and Monetary Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 1995-2003.
    44. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    45. Carlos Capistr¡N & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Hubert, 2015. "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
    2. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Vereda, Luciano & Araujo, Mateus de Azevedo, 2022. "What type of information calls the attention of forecasters? Evidence from survey data in an emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
    4. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2024. "The bias of the ECB inflation projections: A State-dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2024, Bank of Finland.
    5. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2012. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Tomasz Łyziak & Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times. Recent evidence from the European Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBP Working Papers 261, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    7. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times : Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
    8. Paul Hubert, 2015. "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
    9. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2024. "Do Central Bank Communications Influence Survey of Professional Forecasters? An Empirical Investigation," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 12(1), pages 100-112, January.
    10. Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2024. "Metal and energy price uncertainties and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
    12. Vereda, Luciano & Savignon, João & Gouveia da Silva, Tarciso, 2024. "A theory-based method to evaluate the impact of central bank inflation forecasts on private inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1069-1084.
    13. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    14. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "The value added of the Bank of Japan's range forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 817-833, August.
    15. Knüppel, Malte & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Approximating fixed-horizon forecasts using fixed-event forecasts," Discussion Papers 28/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Sinem Kandemir & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Not all ECB meetings are created equal," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202312, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
    2. repec:fce:doctra:13-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Paul Hubert, 2015. "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
    4. repec:fce:doctra:13-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Paul Hubert, 2014. "Disentangling qualitative and quantitative central bank influence," Working Papers hal-01098464, HAL.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2t6uivimtr9438i2qqu6kgfded is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2t6uivimtr9438i2qqu6kgfded is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
    9. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459462, HAL.
    10. Hubert Paul, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-41, January.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/79hle3i1b69dqrocqsjarh6lb1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/79hle3i1b69dqrocqsjarh6lb1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Paul Hubert, 2014. "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1381-1420, October.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2021. "Qualitative and quantitative Central Bank communications and professional forecasts: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    17. Michael Ehrmann & Sylvester Eijffinger & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 1018-1052, September.
    18. Bulíř Aleš & Čihák Martin & Šmídkova Kateřina Š, 2013. "Writing Clearly: The ECB’s Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 50-72, February.
    19. Alexander Jung & Patrick Kuehl, 2021. "Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 298-321, July.
    20. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    21. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca Nicolay, 2015. "Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1142-1158, November.
    23. Rodolfo Tomás Da Fonseca Nicolay & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2014. "Comunicação Do Banco Central,Expectativas De Inflação E Profecia Auto-Realizável: Evidências Para Obrasil," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 046, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    24. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    26. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019. "The role of forward‐ and backward‐looking information for inflation expectations formation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 733-748, December.
    27. Ehrmann, Michael, 2021. "Point targets, tolerance bands or target ranges? Inflation target types and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    28. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    29. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.
    30. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; ECB; private forecasts; structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03399287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.