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Bayesian Inference for the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model

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  • Paul Viefers

Abstract

In this paper a mixed-frequency VAR à la Mariano & Murasawa (2004) with Markov regime switching in the parameters is estimated by Bayesian inference. Unlike earlier studies, that used the pseuo-EM algorithm of Dempster, Laird & Rubin (1977) to estimate the model, this paper describes how to make use of recent advances in Bayesian inference on mixture models. This way, one is able to surmount some well-known issues connected to inference on mixture models, e.g. the label switching problem. The paper features a numerical simulation study to gauge the model performance in terms of convergence to true parameter values and a small empirical example involving US business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Viefers, 2011. "Bayesian Inference for the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1172, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
    2. Qian, Hang, 2012. "Essays on statistical inference with imperfectly observed data," ISU General Staff Papers 201201010800003618, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    4. Seong, Byeongchan, 2020. "Smoothing and forecasting mixed-frequency time series with vector exponential smoothing models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 463-468.
    5. Qian, Hang, 2013. "Vector Autoregression with Mixed Frequency Data," MPRA Paper 47856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Qian, Hang, 2016. "A computationally efficient method for vector autoregression with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 433-437.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov mixture models; Label switching; Bayesian VAR; Mixed frequencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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