Worker Reallocation across Occupations in Western Germany

This paper analyzes the determinants of annual worker reallocation across disaggregated occupations in western Germany for the period 1985-2003. Employing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, the pattern of average occupational mobility is documented. Worker reallocation is found to be strongly procyclical. Its determinants at the individual level are then investigated while controlling for unobserved worker heterogeneity. A dynamic probit fixed effects model is estimated to obtain coefficients and marginal effects. The incidental parameter bias is reduced by the method proposed in Hahn and Kuersteiner (2004). An interesting finding is that workers changing occupation are about 8 to 9 percent less inclined to experience occupational mobility in the subsequent year than workers who do not change. Except for workers with only compulsory education, the impact of age on the probability of occupational change is declining in the level of education. The unemployment rate has a negative effect on the probability of occupational changes, especially for female foreigners.